[Tim Y]

Another factor that throws a wrench into turf contests: TRIPS

In most main track races, the pace of race spreads out the field considerably during the contest, so THE MAJORITY of time, there is enough room for the true contenders to move when they have the chance to.

On the TURF however, the pace early is usually lackadaisical so most early pacesetters do not get that far away from a field, HENCE there is a cavalry charge down many a narrow inner turf course to the wire where many WINNING MOVES are blocked in their attempted fruition. If you look at the layout for Europe's biggest turf contest (the Gran Prix de la Arc de Triomphe), the course WIDENS noticeably at the top of their stretch to give any horse making a late move the room to get up. Newmarket is the same way.

The "upside down" pace is yet another factor that requires a paradigm shift in evaluation of them. One of the classical handicapping considerations on the main track (thanks to Huey Mahl) is exertional physiology catching up with the crowd: PHYSIOLOGICALLY it costs an animal to be out front or pressing up front, so when they are called on LATE in a contest, the oxygen debt expresses itself in a myriad of predictable (based upon each horse's known energy distribution). Recall these are the same animals running upside down on the turf.

On the grass, whether it is just historical convention or actual physiology, the race winners DEPEND on having something in reserve ...HOWEVER, race to race this does not express itself consistently. How often to you see a horse that closes well, get too far back and even in spite of a clear late and exciting MOVE, there was just too much real estate to get to the wire on top?

In Micheal Pizzola's good book Handicapping Magic, he changed much of my way of looking at turfers. His contention is that turf horses have less a form cycle than their dirt cousins. Rather that view just the last several attempts, he suggested opening up a turfers ENTIRE last 10 lines listed for evaluation. I saw this happen: we had a very good turfer here (Court Vision who won the Woodbine Mile and has proven to be a good sire). In the line I evaluated for him in the Mile, his final fraction was in the range of 62 feet per second which is almost sprinters opening velocity. Over his next several he did not get to the wire as often as these numbers would suggest, HOWEVER his very good closing ability was expressed the day he defeated Goldikova (she had less than a great trip) in the Breeder's Cup Mile...That animal had shown that ability before, just not recently. Turf form cycles are NOT like the main track horses.

To use this method, just pick a horse's best two TPP rankings and then compare them to the field.

Turf evaluations have many many POT HOLES that are not readily apparent.