Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Tim Y · 12-09-2016, 04:16 PM

I used to believe that too, and there are many times that completely illogical horses sneak in, particularly in the 4th slot. I use a second ticket that incorporates the top choices with an ALL ticket to cover those eventualities. Your odds characterization is based upon EACH horse having a similar chance of winning and we all know that is not true.

EVEN with the hit and miss of these outliers, the long term profit on these exotics MORE than makes up for the minuscule short prices of Dutched winners. Hitting one of these keeps the bankroll healthy for dozens of win cycle misses.

One of the great books that Howard Sartin suggested is actually an embodiment of an idea that he put forth as a reading choice for those in the Follow Up. A great book called simply CHAOS by Gleick, or the even more enlightening one: Complexity by Mitchell Waldrop.

Their message: there is structure in what we think is randomness. Find a venue where it is expressed enough and then have at it.

It is there. It might well be other places AGAIN THIS SEASON like Oaklawn was in 2016. I am surely going to look again after the first few weeks of the traditionally uneven two weeks of the season.

12-09-2016, 04:16 PM	#3
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	I used to believe that too, and there are many times that completely illogical horses sneak in, particularly in the 4th slot. I use a second ticket that incorporates the top choices with an ALL ticket to cover those eventualities. Your odds characterization is based upon EACH horse having a similar chance of winning and we all know that is not true. EVEN with the hit and miss of these outliers, the long term profit on these exotics MORE than makes up for the minuscule short prices of Dutched winners. Hitting one of these keeps the bankroll healthy for dozens of win cycle misses. One of the great books that Howard Sartin suggested is actually an embodiment of an idea that he put forth as a reading choice for those in the Follow Up. A great book called simply CHAOS by Gleick, or the even more enlightening one: Complexity by Mitchell Waldrop. Their message: there is structure in what we think is randomness. Find a venue where it is expressed enough and then have at it. It is there. It might well be other places AGAIN THIS SEASON like Oaklawn was in 2016. I am surely going to look again after the first few weeks of the traditionally uneven two weeks of the season. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."