[Ted Craven]

Can I give it a go? A matchup sheds a lot of light:

Earlies:
#2 Sierra 23.0 46.4
#6 Real 22.4 46.1 (also EP style, can also run just behind the leader and win)

Sierra will go for the lead and can wire the field only when he gets a relatively uncontested lead. When challenged, he folds after the 2nd call, at the latest. Real does not absolutely need the lead but will be within a length of Sierra, pushing him to stay further ahead, and fold predicatably.

Pressers:
#1 Polish
#4 Golden (also SP style)
#7 Tonic (though 2nd line wired the field, it is atypical and requires a 1st call time of 23.5 or slower, which won't happen today)

If the Earlies collapse, one of the Pressers will be there, and the only one worth betting on is Polish at 7-1.

My uncertainty is whether Real may be able to stalk Sierra at a slow enough pace to tire that one yet reserve enough energy to finish up. Again, the price on Polish makes the betting decision easier.

I chose line 4 for Tonic as more representative of how he will run today (i.e. not the wire-to-wire 2nd)

The BL/BL screen could be misleading here given the matchup analysis of the Earlies (including Sierra), so one could hide Sierra, or just discount it, and focus on the remaining Pressers (Tonic, Golden, Polish). Polish looks to have excellent relative True Speed, and equal Deceleration to Tonic. Further, Tonic won 2 back and just doesn't seem to fire frequently enough to do it again today.

That's my unpolished analysis, and I did it knowing the result before hand. I think all the numbers must be subsidiary to the matchup. I'd really appreciate learning more from anyone else's view on this.

Ted