Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Dorianmode · 01-22-2017, 06:22 PM

Hey, congrats on the big win !!

After some time off to get my mom's affairs settled, I came back to racing with three goals :

1. Finish working on my own version of the sort of statistical tool that *New Pace* is a form of (I have discussed that before, it's based on a standard deviation stat created from the TM speed ratings), (ONLY) as an adjunct to RDSS (I use both 2.0 and 2.1 ... thank you Ted). I found a number of flaws in my programming, but it's all fixed and working now.

2. Complete an automated regression analysis, a multiple regression tool, and correlation analysis tool (all in Excel stats (free) add-in package), that could be run after each race with one click of a command button (and associated macros) in my Excel profiles, and using these outputs as weighting tools, weight each horse based on these numbers. Done. Amazing results !

3. Start trying the trifecta (I do a 4 horse box) and (super) perfecta pools, as I noticed the tools above, (along with RDSS *of course* were winning perfectas rather often. I normally stuck to win betting before.

So with the above in use, (I only do turf racing-sprints and routes, as that's where I find value) I bet about $40.00 on each perfecta (I do about 4 races per day, Friday - Sunday) so if it's a $ 0.10 perfecta, I ramp it up to spend about $40.00. Anyhow, my picks for Gulfstream 8 on Saturday 1/21, were 9,12,5,3,10, for the box. The superfecta paid (with my "fourty dolla") ... $22,000. Whoo hooo. Nice birthday present.

Thank you Ted and RDSS.

01-22-2017, 06:22 PM	#4
Dorianmode always learning Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe Posts: 277	New venture into exotics - fun Hey, congrats on the big win !! After some time off to get my mom's affairs settled, I came back to racing with three goals : 1. Finish working on my own version of the sort of statistical tool that New Pace is a form of (I have discussed that before, it's based on a standard deviation stat created from the TM speed ratings), (ONLY) as an adjunct to RDSS (I use both 2.0 and 2.1 ... thank you Ted). I found a number of flaws in my programming, but it's all fixed and working now. 2. Complete an automated regression analysis, a multiple regression tool, and correlation analysis tool (all in Excel stats (free) add-in package), that could be run after each race with one click of a command button (and associated macros) in my Excel profiles, and using these outputs as weighting tools, weight each horse based on these numbers. Done. Amazing results ! 3. Start trying the trifecta (I do a 4 horse box) and (super) perfecta pools, as I noticed the tools above, (along with RDSS of course were winning perfectas rather often. I normally stuck to win betting before. So with the above in use, (I only do turf racing-sprints and routes, as that's where I find value) I bet about $40.00 on each perfecta (I do about 4 races per day, Friday - Sunday) so if it's a $ 0.10 perfecta, I ramp it up to spend about $40.00. Anyhow, my picks for Gulfstream 8 on Saturday 1/21, were 9,12,5,3,10, for the box. The superfecta paid (with my "fourty dolla") ... $22,000. Whoo hooo. Nice birthday present. Thank you Ted and RDSS.