Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Hypothetical scenario

Jeebs · 01-25-2017, 12:48 AM

Kind of a crude example (no PPs), but looking for some help or insight.

Horse is entered in a 6 furlong sprint today. His previous 7 starts are all turf routes with lines 8 through 10 on dirt sprinting way back when over 250 days ago. His EPR/LPR stick on turf favors a late style, yet his sprint races on dirt are favoring early. Current turf form is OK and his precious dirt races are good as well.

My first inclination would be not to select a paceline for this horse. Remember, the last comparable line came 250 days ago, 8 starts ago. Ancient history. Given how this horse distributes its speed on turf compared to dirt, using a turf line could be very dangerous. However, using what I consider as a "stale" dirt line can also be dangerous. If there a reliable indicator that this horse will run back to his previous dirt form, I'm not seeing it.

What are your thoughts and advisement?

01-25-2017, 12:48 AM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Hypothetical scenario - what to do? Kind of a crude example (no PPs), but looking for some help or insight. Horse is entered in a 6 furlong sprint today. His previous 7 starts are all turf routes with lines 8 through 10 on dirt sprinting way back when over 250 days ago. His EPR/LPR stick on turf favors a late style, yet his sprint races on dirt are favoring early. Current turf form is OK and his precious dirt races are good as well. My first inclination would be not to select a paceline for this horse. Remember, the last comparable line came 250 days ago, 8 starts ago. Ancient history. Given how this horse distributes its speed on turf compared to dirt, using a turf line could be very dangerous. However, using what I consider as a "stale" dirt line can also be dangerous. If there a reliable indicator that this horse will run back to his previous dirt form, I'm not seeing it. What are your thoughts and advisement?