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I would use the dirt line and same distance line, best of lines 8 through 10 back. Even doing that the horse may not come up as a contender. I would review his recent turf races to see if he is the same horse as in previous turf races, that would indicate to me he is well meant. Additionally I would review available trainer stats for further indication of trainers intent and ability.
At best he is an unknown factor and if another horse is an unknown factor I would pass the race. Lastly with a two horse bet it allows me to be wrong and still have the winner and if correct probably get a good payoff as the public most likely won't bet this type of horse. The two horse bet and odds will smooth out these type of plays. I've made these type of plays before and have confidence in it however if your not comfortable with this then pass the race. That's my approach to this situation and have no problem going back that far to get a line at a similar distance and surface. ****You have to treat all horses the same when it comes to the same surface and distance.*****
Lt1 and I collaborated back in the early 90's at the Meadowland's seminar with a similar situation but it was a turf race and we used a line 8 back which was it's only turf line. We were the only ones to have this big longshot. The "Doc and "The Hat" were surprised we had it and were interested how we got it. Have done this ever since. As I said through if your uncomfortable with this then pass the race.
Best of luck.
Mitch44
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