Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Hypothetical scenario

The Pook · 01-26-2017, 07:42 PM

Jeebs I remembered your posting of this hypothetical situation and was looking for a live example to come along. They do occasionally and are often good payoffs.

Todays 9th at GP was one such example. Had it down to three contenders of which the 4 looked live but had no recent dirt races. Only one lonely one at the bottom. It was comparable in speed to recent poly sprints. That 10th line put the 4 into a betting situation. If I used the best of last three comparable (3rd pace line) I would have bet the other two instead or just made it a non-contender. Like the guys above said you look for confirming factors. The lifetime stats top right show it 5 for 26 in sprints. Not bad. 7-1.

Admittedly it is riskier and you do miss a lot but the payoffs make up for it. This price was only mediocre for a 10th pace line horse but nice just the same especially in a six horse field.

Pook

01-26-2017, 07:42 PM	#6
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,847	Jeebs I remembered your posting of this hypothetical situation and was looking for a live example to come along. They do occasionally and are often good payoffs. Todays 9th at GP was one such example. Had it down to three contenders of which the 4 looked live but had no recent dirt races. Only one lonely one at the bottom. It was comparable in speed to recent poly sprints. That 10th line put the 4 into a betting situation. If I used the best of last three comparable (3rd pace line) I would have bet the other two instead or just made it a non-contender. Like the guys above said you look for confirming factors. The lifetime stats top right show it 5 for 26 in sprints. Not bad. 7-1. Admittedly it is riskier and you do miss a lot but the payoffs make up for it. This price was only mediocre for a 10th pace line horse but nice just the same especially in a six horse field. Pook Attached Images Last edited by The Pook; 01-26-2017 at 07:45 PM.