Ted asked,
"Could you describe in general your process for paceline selection and Contender separation?"
Those are easy questions for me. In most cases, I use the default "Best Perceptor, Last 3 Comparable" for paceline selection. The exceptions are few and obvious. For example, a maiden claiming winner with that one gaudy figure and now facing a field of winners. Or an older claimer (I play a lot of claiming races) with paired, lifetime tops. Statistically, he's going to regress, absent evidence to the contrary. Or a bad pace setup with multiple E's, all with their best lines selected, or an "S" in a paceless race and its selected line is from a hot-pace race. Regardless, it has to be a strong and obvious reason for me to change a paceline. (And for that reason, the statistics above are from races with default pacelines, with few exceptions.)
I separate contenders primarily on odds. I'm a two-horse bettor and I'll play a low-odds horse as a hedge if I can get 4-1 or higher on another. A little action on Tote Xray is always encouraging too. Hit several of those second horses in a 20-race cycle and you'll make a profit. Doc Sartin cautioned about getting in a hole. I've tried several approaches and hedging on a low-odds horse is the best way for me to stay even while I wait on the high-odds horse to come home. Stuff happened in a horse race and those horses do win, as we all know.
mick