Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44
My thoughts are you picked a bad line. I would use line # 3 at 7F. I try to stay within 1/2 F of todays distance and no more that 1F of todays distance. Obviously this is an improving horse, but the question is why? New trainer or new equipment? I don't have that information here but with its age may not repeat that top. Even if declining from last he may run back to line #3. I don't believe Line 1 is correct, why use it when you have 7F lines?
Mitch44
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Spot on, Mitch. I agree that this is a bad line. There are plenty of 7F lines to rate this horse off of if one chooses to. However, none of the 7F lines are really ratable. Knowing the information presented to us (the surface/distance record, the 7F races showing in the Form), I can't buy the last line. It throws the race completely out of whack, eliminating virtually the entire field from Win contention.
FWIW, I did not select #5 as a contender when I worked this race solo. My friend KPMats is in a lockdown contest over at DerbyWars today and felt that the horse was a strong contender. Since I had worked this race last night after work (admittedly not the best time to handicap, as fatigue has set in!) I looked back to make sure I didn't miss something. While I did notice the big last line, I then remembered looking at the career box why I threw it out, and it was because of the previous 7F lines/sprint record.