Hey, Pook! Always good to hear from you, friend.
You are spot on with black swans. Mr. Taleb uses the term in a bigger sense, like unpredictable, world-altering events that turn everything, and in particular the stock market, on its head (e.g. the 9/11 attacks, the sub-prime mortgage debacle, and so forth). But his arguments and his points scale down nicely to horse racing.
He's brilliant, articulate, and entertaining. It's an exceptional book and I recommend it. What makes it doubly good for me is that I keep hearing "wagercapping" in my head as I read. I sincerely doubt that Nassim Taleb has ever heard that word and it is certainly not on the written page. But while he and Doc Sartin are separated by years and years, I believe those two men were/are on slightly different frequencies of the same signal.
I'm hoping to come back an inspired guy, ready to bet those Tier 3 and 4 horses at good prices.
