Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Kentucky Derby Race 12 5/6/17 G1 2,000000

Mitch44 · 05-06-2017, 06:02 PM

My only real contenders are the 5 -17 -2 16. The 5 has done everything asked of him so far. This 17 isn't speed crazy and can rate, in his last he had to chase or lose the race. With additional speed in here he can rate and move later in the race for a score. The 2 horse is better than it appears, has some class, won on an off track and at 9F. Still races green and the most upside of all of these. Using Trakus I made his TPR ratings both PMTR and my own. He basically ran only 4 lg . below Gun Runner and 5 .5 lg of Arrogate on the same day for comparison handicapping. For a 3yr old that's saying something and is classier than appears and should improve with maturity. I'm surprised he's only 16-1 at this time, then again those connections have a lot of moo-la. I also like the 16 as I tossed his last race due to the track or bounce.
So my order is 2-5-17-16.

The horses in this race all ran their best race in their last and the race is really unpredictable and not worth trying to get too involved and hammering something is out of the question. I'll throw a couple bucks on the 2,16,18 & 19 for a price and an a small EX with those on top of the 5 and 17 and reverse with the 5 & 17 over the 2,16,18,19.
Best of luck in this Calvary charge.
Mitch44

05-06-2017, 06:02 PM	#10
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	My only real contenders are the 5 -17 -2 16. The 5 has done everything asked of him so far. This 17 isn't speed crazy and can rate, in his last he had to chase or lose the race. With additional speed in here he can rate and move later in the race for a score. The 2 horse is better than it appears, has some class, won on an off track and at 9F. Still races green and the most upside of all of these. Using Trakus I made his TPR ratings both PMTR and my own. He basically ran only 4 lg . below Gun Runner and 5 .5 lg of Arrogate on the same day for comparison handicapping. For a 3yr old that's saying something and is classier than appears and should improve with maturity. I'm surprised he's only 16-1 at this time, then again those connections have a lot of moo-la. I also like the 16 as I tossed his last race due to the track or bounce. So my order is 2-5-17-16. The horses in this race all ran their best race in their last and the race is really unpredictable and not worth trying to get too involved and hammering something is out of the question. I'll throw a couple bucks on the 2,16,18 & 19 for a price and an a small EX with those on top of the 5 and 17 and reverse with the 5 & 17 over the 2,16,18,19. Best of luck in this Calvary charge. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 05-06-2017 at 06:05 PM.