Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

omar · 05-25-2017, 06:39 AM

FTS listed as the m/l favorite win about 40% of the time.

FTS in Route races (on dirt) win only about 1-2 % of the time on average, but always validate at your circuit.

So in Maiden routes look for horses that can meet the pars. Barring that, look for sprinters WITH EVEN RUNNING STYLE PATTERNS STRETCHING OUT. Barring that, then look for a horse that can get a 2 length lead at the 2nd call (a lone early type).

Keeping your own par times for maidens is very easy. On circuits where it rains often I use a 5-6 race model and it looks like this:

Ability Time(W) Race Times(fifths) Winner's Times(tenths) Beaten Lengths

68.2(F2+2nd Call) 22.1 45.0 1:10.0 22.2 45.2 70.4(F2=23.0) 1.5 2.0

Later, Omar.

05-25-2017, 06:39 AM	#1
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 378	A Final Word about FTS/Maidens FTS listed as the m/l favorite win about 40% of the time. FTS in Route races (on dirt) win only about 1-2 % of the time on average, but always validate at your circuit. So in Maiden routes look for horses that can meet the pars. Barring that, look for sprinters WITH EVEN RUNNING STYLE PATTERNS STRETCHING OUT. Barring that, then look for a horse that can get a 2 length lead at the 2nd call (a lone early type). Keeping your own par times for maidens is very easy. On circuits where it rains often I use a 5-6 race model and it looks like this: Ability Time(W) Race Times(fifths) Winner's Times(tenths) Beaten Lengths 68.2(F2+2nd Call) 22.1 45.0 1:10.0 22.2 45.2 70.4(F2=23.0) 1.5 2.0 Later, Omar. Last edited by omar; 05-25-2017 at 06:55 AM.