Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Day 35 DMR feature race, Race 8 The Grade 2 Del Mar Derby

Mitch44 · 09-03-2017, 07:48 PM

8^th DelMar 3 Sept. 17 9F Turf 3 yr. olds

# 1 L 4 rates and ran more S & late in last so this dis.shouldn’t be a problem. Still sorting itself out. Last was a good race settingit up for improvement today as good as its first start here in the U.S. Couldbe a shocker or make the EX. 20/1 ML An unknown factor.
#2 L 2 has won at the dis.
# 3 L 1 has won 4 of 7 starts and rated in only 9 F race,still runs greenly so has upside.
# 4 L 2 added B & won 2 of last 3, needed last after layoff,expect sharper today, upside and top unknown and should improve, did what hehad to for wins. Top???
# 5 L 1 has won 3 of 4 since switching to turf and has wontwice at today’s dis. of 9F, Top??
# 6 L 1 beaten by a hd. In last two, doesn’t appear to havethe will to win, I think he may need longer dis. than 9F & has won at 10Fwhile a late running horse, very consistent SR while climbing the class ladder,I’ll toss for today.
# 7 L 1 shows consistent SR while going up in class, added Bon in last and tried turf to run his best race yet. With only one race with Bon & one turf race this horse could be anything. An unknown factor becausehis true ability hasn’t been established yet. M/L 6-1 which should go up andmay pay a price.
# 8 L 2 low SR & only 2 wins of 9 starts, big step up inclass here and trainer only 7% for routes of 85 starts. Toss!
#9 scratched
# 10 L this horse has been running late in last few racesand its best races are more on the pace at 8F, he has the class to get a partbut I don’t like him for the win and may go off as favorite. Does add Blinkerstoday which could be the answer, another unknown factor at low odds, isconsistent and may get a part. Also lost last 3 races so I’ll downgrade.
# 11 L has lost last 4 in a row, not a G2 horse. Toss!!
Another tough 3 yr. race where they haven’t developed yetand risky from a betting point. With all the questions I’ll go for a price andan upset. No big wager here, also the 7^th & 9^th arefull of many unknown factors making the DD tough with the 9^th thebetter of the two. Tread lightly with some fun bets.
1-5-7-4-6 a wag with this one (wild as- guess) out of the 4, 6, 7 I’ll take the two w/ longest odds.
Mitch44

09-03-2017, 07:48 PM	#7
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	8^th DelMar 3 Sept. 17 9F Turf 3 yr. olds # 1 L 4 rates and ran more S & late in last so this dis.shouldn’t be a problem. Still sorting itself out. Last was a good race settingit up for improvement today as good as its first start here in the U.S. Couldbe a shocker or make the EX. 20/1 ML An unknown factor. #2 L 2 has won at the dis. # 3 L 1 has won 4 of 7 starts and rated in only 9 F race,still runs greenly so has upside. # 4 L 2 added B & won 2 of last 3, needed last after layoff,expect sharper today, upside and top unknown and should improve, did what hehad to for wins. Top??? # 5 L 1 has won 3 of 4 since switching to turf and has wontwice at today’s dis. of 9F, Top?? # 6 L 1 beaten by a hd. In last two, doesn’t appear to havethe will to win, I think he may need longer dis. than 9F & has won at 10Fwhile a late running horse, very consistent SR while climbing the class ladder,I’ll toss for today. # 7 L 1 shows consistent SR while going up in class, added Bon in last and tried turf to run his best race yet. With only one race with Bon & one turf race this horse could be anything. An unknown factor becausehis true ability hasn’t been established yet. M/L 6-1 which should go up andmay pay a price. # 8 L 2 low SR & only 2 wins of 9 starts, big step up inclass here and trainer only 7% for routes of 85 starts. Toss! #9 scratched # 10 L this horse has been running late in last few racesand its best races are more on the pace at 8F, he has the class to get a partbut I don’t like him for the win and may go off as favorite. Does add Blinkerstoday which could be the answer, another unknown factor at low odds, isconsistent and may get a part. Also lost last 3 races so I’ll downgrade. # 11 L has lost last 4 in a row, not a G2 horse. Toss!! Another tough 3 yr. race where they haven’t developed yetand risky from a betting point. With all the questions I’ll go for a price andan upset. No big wager here, also the 7^th & 9^th arefull of many unknown factors making the DD tough with the 9^th thebetter of the two. Tread lightly with some fun bets. 1-5-7-4-6 a wag with this one (wild as- guess) out of the 4, 6, 7 I’ll take the two w/ longest odds. Mitch44