Conditions: Clm12500, 5 1/2F for 4up.
On analysis, this is a high pressure race, with several matching early positional runners. 3-5-7-8 have shown that they can set/attend a pace of 21.8-22 and are quite bunched up. Will one of these get away from the rest? Or will we see them fighting?
The #4 is off-form and hasn't been able to run successfully against this type of pressure. He was an early runner at one point, but has changed its running style, which begs the question: is this horse still a horse? I say that he's not. Out.
This leaves 1-2-6-9 as Other Than Early runners who can attack this high pressure match-up.
Positionally, 2-6-9 shows strong moves. #2 made a wide winning move from the 2nd call to the stretch, sustaining that rally throughout the stretch. Looks very obvious for a conditioner who has had success at this track the past couple of seasons. Encouraging with #6 is that last out race against a 22, gaining 3 positions (7-4) and 3 lengths from the 1st to 2nd calls. People looking at Beyer numbers may overlook this one. #9 will be less obvious as it showed nothing after its layoff, but the DTV on that race suggests that the track was playing super off that day. Its race from 3 starts back (11/5 at CD) against a 21.4 gained 5 positions (9-4) and 4 lengths from 1st to 2nd call. #1 is a little bit of a mystery as it shows one race (9/30 at Del) against a 22 pace but did not do so much in the way of moving. Runs well fresh.
IMHO, #2 is the one to beat off cold dope, but #6 and #9 are likely to offer tremendous value off their morning lines provided everyone else focuses on the high figure horses.