Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Another 11.3% of all races were won by horses changing distance or surface. This is a foggy area for all of us because stretching out or cutting back in distance has always been a tough proposition to assess.
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A little more on the conundrum of horses changing distance or surface. Below is a summary of all DMR races from the summer meet that won by changing distance or surface. It happens on average about once a day!
The position at each call data comes from the race charts. At the bottom of the column the data represent numbers and percentages of time the winner was in the top 3. LO is layoff days; ML is morning line and ML# is ML odds rank. The % are number of ML > 20/1 and top 4 and ties in the ML.
In keeping with FTL's guidelines these horses are ALL non contenders (NQ), yet when you pick a representative line their 1F and 2C ranks on the SEGMENT screen show consistently that many are top 3 at 1F and 2C.
I classified the kind of change so DSPT/DRTE = dirt sprint to dirt route; TSPT/TRTE = turf sprint to turf route.
I looked at other factors from the RDSS printouts. Note that there are only two winners that went from a route back to a sprint[brown]. The other 27 are stretch outs or surface changes within the same distance structure.
The only modestly compelling observation that I could make is that in 17 of the 27 the winner was top 3 EPR. Also several of the sprint to route horses appear to be top five ranked in both EPR and LPR!
