[For The Lead]

While I’m at it, I would like to give Neil S the credit he is due and deserves.

Here is a guy that joined this site in September of 2007. In more than 10 years he has made just 65 postings. It appears that although he doesn’t post much himself, he certainly reads what others post. And when he reads something that sparks an interest, he follows through, giving what he decides to work on the time necessary for a full evaluation. This is apparent to me from what he wrote in a recent post. Here’s what he said in post #27 of this thread.

“The beauty of FTL's guidelines is that they provide a framework for consistent, disciplined analysis of a race. One needs patience and discipline and must bypass races with short priced horses as well as those with multiple unknown factors in order to be successful. By playing multiple tracks one gets more opportunities to locate value and the types of profitable situations that makes the guidelines work best.
From a percentage standpoint there may be more winners with other selection methods, however I find that betting older or questionable pace lines does not guarantee any greater success in locating the actual winner if you are a two horse better. It may even cloud the readouts with lines and rankings that are perhaps better looking than they should be.”

If you read this closely and compare it to what Bill Lyster has written here, you find find similarities.

Here are a couple of posts he made recently telling of how 2 $10 bets won him well over $1,500!

I have been a user of Phase I for most of the years I've been a Sartin disciple and over the last two years have used the line selection guidelines posted by For The Lead. In my results I have noticed that the bulk of the winners I've gotten in the #1 and #2 slots have been mostly low priced runners, however occasionally a beautiful long shot does come. I have been very patient targeting horses to win in either the #1 or #2 slots with morning line odds of 4-1 or higher. If both the #1 and #2 horses are 4-1 or higher I bet both to win and do a simple 2 dollar exacta box. It has been a bit of a slow start to the year, but my patience was rewarded today in the 8th race of the opening day card at Oaklawn when I registered a remarkable score to say the least.
Both of my top two contenders were clearly above 4-1 so I made 3 dollar win bets on both and boxed them in the exacta for 2 dollars. With both my win bets at 29-1 and 25-1 respectively I was already thrilled with the result but when the exacta popped at $1123.20 I was in Sartin Heaven to say the least!!! An amazing return for a 10 dollar wager netted a healthy profit of $1205.60.
As you can clearly see there was very little magic in my line selection but if one remains patient and disciplined in their line selection and wagering approach amazing things can truly happen.

Here is his rundown of the horses in the race:
#1 Far Right 15-1 - No line. Horse ran a 0 race in a similar spot last out at FG
#2 Futile 12-1. - Line 2. Last race was at 1 1/4 miles which is more than a furlong further than todays distance. Chose a line at today's distance which is a winning effort at Churchill.
#3 Sightforsoreeyes. 30-1- No line based upon FTL's guidelines
#4 Dan the Go to Man 12-1 - Line 1 a wire to wire win in a similar spot at RP
#5 Stcksstatelydude 5-1- Line 1 which is a (+) line in a similar spot at FG
#6 Goats Town 20-1. Out
#7 Royal Squeez 20-1. Out
#8 Shotgun Kowboy 6-1- Line1. Solid + race effort against similar
#9 Dazzling Gem 7-2 Line 1. Same race as #8
#10 Sonneteer 12-1 Line 1 which was a solid effort at LA. Usually don't trust LA lines but noticed some solid efforts last year at OP.
#11 Untrapped 3-1- Line 1 which was a solid effort in the Zia Park Derby
#12 Cheif Know it All 10-1- Line 1 same race as #11

Here are the TPR's for the horses getting a line and the top 4 contenders:

#2. 172.5 2
#4. 169.5
#5. 157.5
#8. 169.5
#9. 169.5
#10 177 1
#11. 171 3
#12. 170 4


Another Oaklawn Score Thanks to FTL

Oaklawn has proved to be a profitable oasis for me thus far thanks mostly to following the Guidelines of FTL. Today's 6th race at Oaklawn was the source of another solid result:

As both of my top two TPR's were 4-1 or higher I bet both to win and boxed them in the exacta. Was delighted as Cheponara scored and paid $42.80 with First Alternate running second to complete the $278.80 exacta.
I bet 3 dollars on each to win boxed for 2 dollars to receive 343 dollars for a 10 dollar investment. Following the guidelines gets great results yet again!!

Here is his rundown of the horses in this race.

1.Unidvided 6-1 - No line as only rateable line in 90 days was a 0.
2. Nucla 6-5 - Last line which was a Maiden win in the slop at FG
3. Cheponara 10-1 - Last line which was a mile win at CD
4. Caramel Cream 15-1 - No line as last line was a 0 against common opponent First Alternate.
5. Glamorized 6-1- Although you could excuse the last line as it was the first over the OP surface this meeting it was a 0 against First Alternate and Line 2 is more than 90 days old.
6. Memorial Drive 7-2 - Last line which was a Maiden win at FG
1a. Charmin Dixie 6-1 - Same situation as #5 as although last line was first over the OP surface it was a 0 against First Alternate and line 2 was too old.
7. First Alternate 5-1 - last line which was a 2nd earning it a + line.

Here are the 4 contenders and their TPR rankings:

Nucla 155.5 (3)
Cheponara 167.5 (1)
Memorial 150 (4)
First 154 (2)

Neil S., thank you for your input and I wish you continued success!