Quote:
Originally Posted by zimal2
I've followed with great interest FTL's postings and taken out many nuggets. Thank you Bill for amassing them all in one place, and FTL for your hard work and prescient observations in the first place.
I ran past 12 months numbers for equal to and greater than 20/1 MLO and and got 2% winners for all tracks, all race types and distances. Little variation whether turf, dirt or artificial. 37,519 horses involved. So even worse than FTL's 6%.
But with first after 90 day layoff I get something different. With 25,241 horses allburger there were 11% winners. And using any number of filters, I can push that up to 18 to 20% of 3500 horses or close to 700 winners with an average win price of about $7.60. So I'm tossing those high MLO odds, but looking much more cautiously at 1pL 90+
Zim
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Zim:
I don't mean to be picky here, but if you look at Bill V's numbers, the number of starters that ran with 90 day layoffs is about 7.3%, but the number of race WINNERS who ran with 90 day layoffs is 5.7%.
If the tracks you model actually produce those high percentage of winners with long layoffs, then yes, reconsider those horses through the rest of the handicapping process.