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Old 02-08-2018, 05:38 PM   #63
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
I can come up with similar numbers.
I took two separate years and performed your calculation.

Year 1 – 348,121 total horses
Of those, 24,204 horses were off more than 90 days.
Of those, 2,296 horses won or 9.5%.

Year 2 – 327,172 total horses
Of those, 22,425 horses were off more than 90 days.
Of those, 2,210 horses won or 9.9%.

As you can see, the results I got (9.5% and 9.9%) are very comparable to the 11% you show.
And, as I just did above, you calculated the number of winners there were from the group of horses that were off more than 90 days.
But, that is NOT how the statistic is calculated.

The idea is to first find the number of winning horses. Then determine how many of those winning horses were off more than 90 days.

So, in my Year 1 – there were a total of 42,543 winners.
From that group of winners, the same 2,296 horses off more than 90 days (as shown above) were race winners, which comes to 5.4% of all race winners.

In my Year 2 – there were a total of 40,442 winners.
From that group of winners, the same 2,210 horses off more than 90 days (as shown above) were race winners, which comes to 5.5% of all race winners.
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