I will be working the race using both the original Sartin guidelines with FTL's added guidelines for non-contenders and the BLT/C.
Using FTL's recency guideline, we won't consider #'s 2, 9 and 10, as they have been off more than 90 days. Then, using FTL's ML odds guideline, we're not considering #'s 7 and 11, as both are 20-1 ML or greater. These two guidelines cull approximately 46% of the field before diving into a more detailed analysis of the remaining runners.
#1 - Line 1. An unknown factor as it is rising to the $8's for the first time in recent memory. Multiple win and "+" lines vs. OK bred bottom claimers. Usually runs late. Encountered a little bit of trouble 1st time over the OP oval. Trainer has hit at a low strike rate the past two seasons but is overall middle of the road in claiming events.
#3 - NO LINE. Former allowance level winner has declined in recent starts off the freshening. First two outs over the track showed nothing vs. $12.5 albeit NW1-4M condition. Today's race is for NW2-6M, which figures to be tougher despite the drop in price. Horse appears to have changed its running style to a bit more sustained than it has been, so it may not be the same horse that it once was.
#4 - NO LINE. Showed nothing last out off the freshening vs open $10 company over the surface, followed by another line at HAW where it showed nothing. It's most recent "+" race (a win) was vs. IL-bred $10 claimers, which would seem below this level.
#5 - Line 3. With 4 starts within the recency guideline, we have a garden variety of lines at our disposal. I bypassed Lines 1 and 2 because the DED "sprints" are of the two turn variety and that 2nd line down was a route. Line 3 fits on recency, distance, class and form. Slightly concerned that the horse ran a "+" race and was claimed for $15 in that line and is now dropped in for $8, but the trainer is overly aggressive with his claimers, hitting at 30% over multiple seasons, despite the low % meet stat. Owner is also very aggressive in this region's claiming ranks. If this horse is right, it is a winning spot.
#6 - Line 1. The only usable race off the recency guideline and it is a "+ within a zero (+)". Visually a late runner, but tends to use its energy early.
#8 - Line 1. We had two potentially rateable lines off the recency guideline, but its last was over the track and a "(+)" race off the freshening vs. $12.5 NW1-4M. Slight unknown is the fact that the horse has continued a descent down the ladder having been competitive for $25 and $20 and is entered for the $8 today. Respectable trainer with his claimers despite struggles at the current meet.
If my interpretation of the original guidelines with FTL's added guidelines is correct, this is my starting point as far as the "true" contention in the race goes:
