Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 04-01-2018, 10:07 PM

lone speed:

Your calculations are spot on, & at 2 F = about 6 2/3 feet. Less than 1 length of a horse which is about 8 to 9 feet. Sartin used 10 feet initially because it made the math easier. Later he did refine it to the distance being measured, I believe 2 feet for every 1/16 being measured. However it really doesn't make any different what length is used as long as all horses,lines etc. are treated equally without a hap hazard approach.

The most important aspect of this race is the variant. While the track was fast and Medelson, Mind Your Biscutts and Thunder Snow all broke track records for their distance and races, the speed of that track needs to be equated to a US track for any future races in the US. No different than a track to track adjustment here in the US.

Based on my down and dirty analysis I put that track 6 to 9 lengths slower than most US ovals depending on which track in the US. E.g. 9 for SA and 6 for most other tracks or perhaps for CD. That's at 6F a route would be a little less. I use that because the Thunder Snow won off by 18.5 lengths And Mind Your Biscutts is a known quantity and the P horse which were only a head apart. Their a known quantity to which lends its self to a intersection or one can find an unknown point from two known points.

For me the variant is more important than no run up distance. For 100% sure you can adjust the extra 2 meters etc. but the variant is the key for me in a down and dirty solution. Additionally for 100% accuracy don't forget the lost feet for going wide for top finishers which is also calculated by Trakus and has a direct bearing on time and beaten lengths for horses.

Bottom line is Medellson ran a monster race & faster than 4 & up best in the world, even through a 1/16 shorter on same track and same day. Due to shipping plus a 3 yr old it may knock him out however if handled properly and not pushed into the Triple Crown if not ready he is going to a force to be reckoned with. Than again he may just be a NTL who shook loose and got brave. We'll see.

I wish you luck with the Ky. Derby and all future wagers.

Mitch44

04-01-2018, 10:07 PM	#9
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	lone speed: Your calculations are spot on, & at 2 F = about 6 2/3 feet. Less than 1 length of a horse which is about 8 to 9 feet. Sartin used 10 feet initially because it made the math easier. Later he did refine it to the distance being measured, I believe 2 feet for every 1/16 being measured. However it really doesn't make any different what length is used as long as all horses,lines etc. are treated equally without a hap hazard approach. The most important aspect of this race is the variant. While the track was fast and Medelson, Mind Your Biscutts and Thunder Snow all broke track records for their distance and races, the speed of that track needs to be equated to a US track for any future races in the US. No different than a track to track adjustment here in the US. Based on my down and dirty analysis I put that track 6 to 9 lengths slower than most US ovals depending on which track in the US. E.g. 9 for SA and 6 for most other tracks or perhaps for CD. That's at 6F a route would be a little less. I use that because the Thunder Snow won off by 18.5 lengths And Mind Your Biscutts is a known quantity and the P horse which were only a head apart. Their a known quantity to which lends its self to a intersection or one can find an unknown point from two known points. For me the variant is more important than no run up distance. For 100% sure you can adjust the extra 2 meters etc. but the variant is the key for me in a down and dirty solution. Additionally for 100% accuracy don't forget the lost feet for going wide for top finishers which is also calculated by Trakus and has a direct bearing on time and beaten lengths for horses. Bottom line is Medellson ran a monster race & faster than 4 & up best in the world, even through a 1/16 shorter on same track and same day. Due to shipping plus a 3 yr old it may knock him out however if handled properly and not pushed into the Triple Crown if not ready he is going to a force to be reckoned with. Than again he may just be a NTL who shook loose and got brave. We'll see. I wish you luck with the Ky. Derby and all future wagers. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 04-01-2018 at 10:26 PM.