Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Gulfsteam 4-26-6th race

Ted Craven · 04-27-2018, 06:19 PM

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Contender analysis (steps, in order):

demote from Primary (Win): #4 and #2 for being off too long (e.g. > ~90 days)
demote #5 and #2 (again) for no Turf
demote #3 as worst of Top 4 Rx, fewest ranks 1 and 2

#7 is getting a little long in the tooth for Claiming N2L conditions, but has a good excuse last race and is a specialist at the distance, surface and track. 6.60 -1 odds, ProfitLine and Morning Line Rank=2 retains my interest.

I tried lines 1 and 2 for the #6 winner: technically line 2 is from a good race but either line keeps it level 3 on Rx line (and tier 1 or 2 on BL).

#6 has to be one of the Win bets for all its rank 1s, and 6.60 - 1 odds
Also can bet Top Rx (and 2nd BL and VDC) horse and co-favourite #1.
Or, bet all 3 to Win (hedge the #6 to breakeven)

Exacta: 1-7-6 / 1-7-6-4

Tote info was unavailable.

Ted

04-27-2018, 06:19 PM	#4
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,254	Contender analysis (steps, in order): demote from Primary (Win): #4 and #2 for being off too long (e.g. > ~90 days) demote #5 and #2 (again) for no Turf demote #3 as worst of Top 4 Rx, fewest ranks 1 and 2 #7 is getting a little long in the tooth for Claiming N2L conditions, but has a good excuse last race and is a specialist at the distance, surface and track. 6.60 -1 odds, ProfitLine and Morning Line Rank=2 retains my interest. I tried lines 1 and 2 for the #6 winner: technically line 2 is from a good race but either line keeps it level 3 on Rx line (and tier 1 or 2 on BL). #6 has to be one of the Win bets for all its rank 1s, and 6.60 - 1 odds Also can bet Top Rx (and 2nd BL and VDC) horse and co-favourite #1. Or, bet all 3 to Win (hedge the #6 to breakeven) Exacta: 1-7-6 / 1-7-6-4 Tote info was unavailable. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 04-27-2018 at 06:28 PM.