Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Paul,
I am going to see how My Miss Lily runs in the Oaks. She ran on the -17 variant at AQU, the same as Vino Rosso and that line makes her very sustained and 2nd on TPR to the 14. I will adjust my KD analysis accordingly after the Oaks.
Personally, I like Midnight Bisou and Rayya, who has been on or near the lead in all of her recent starts and finished 2nd to Mendelsohn. And it was not the only time she ran vs. males. She has only run vs females in 2 of her 5 races.
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Lily in the Oaks (way back and no big move) ran two sprints earning 74-77 adjusted SRs then an 80 ASR in the route prior to the AQU race that was -17 variant. Variants in the four races she ran are 0-(-12)-(-4)-(-17).
Vino Rosso ran 4 routes 77 w/+9 variant; 93 w/-17 variant; 80 w/ -4 variant; and 95 w/-17 variant. he had no apparent excuse in the Tam race 80/(-4) race so are we on an upward trend 77-80 or 93-95 with high negative variants.
I think tomorrows race will run fast early and Vino won't be able to keep up. I think he could improve upon the 77-80 to mid 80s.
The filly's races went from 80-88, a 10% apparent improvement. VR's races show a 18.75% improvement from 80 to 95. I am going to say no tomorrow.