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Hi Jeebs,
I appreciate your answer and your guidance truly.
You are correct -- I am using Tom Brohamer's book (Modern Pace Handicapping) as a basis for my work on pace.
The 2018-19 Hong Kong season started this past weekend and I just started actively handicapping this season (using a combination of Speed Ratings and Trackwork). As far as pace goes, I am accurately calculating the pace array -- but this array has almost no value pending an accurate Decision Model.
I have started with just a placeholder Decision Model. Right now, it is far from accurate. I created the Decision Model from the 2017-18 season which concluded in July, 2018. I had not handicapped that season, so I created the Decision Model by using averages for all races for that course and distance. This also suffered from using all the runners in the race (average 13) and not just the true contenders. As you point out, this has muddied the waters and thrown my numbers on the higher side. Also, since I did not handicap the real contenders, I had my program simply pick the last race as the paceline.
I will look at the material you suggested related to "tiering" contenders based on the line score of the factors I choose.
I similarly based my Track Profile on the 2017-18 season. I believe that the Position and Lengths for the First Call and Second Call should be usable. The Percent Early Average and Upper and Lower Range also suffer from the default selection of the last race for the paceline.
Again, I truly appreciate your insights and any other advice that the more eperienced forum members could provide me.
--Sohil Patel
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