[Mitch44]

The Sartin standard:

The "Doc's"standard to be a teacher or standard for success was to achieve a 65% win rate using a two horse betting technique. An admiral goal that few obtained and still a gold standard. Not an easy task and one few today can achieve.
Now if these are the best that means a 35 % lost rate. This is with their knowledge to stay out of certain types of races and situations based on their experience and record keeping.


It is a fact that horses over 20-1 only win in the 20 to 25% range but we'll call it 20%, also a fact that horses coming back off layoffs over 90 days win about 10% of their races. Just on these two factors alone a bettor is giving up at least 30% before any handicapping. And this isn't an all exclusive list! What about horses stretching out to a new distance or cutting back to a new distance?


While some of these may be included in the Sartin standard of 35% lost rate not all are included in that. Just 90 day horses and 20-1 horses alone account for at least 30%. When one adds other angles or the game's variables this is not a happy picture or a winning one.( stretch outs etc.)


Do you really want to give up over 30% going into a race? Every race is its own puzzle to be solved by the handicapper. I don't give anything up going into a race as its not a winning formula and similar to playing Russian roulette with a gun. Probably not a happy ending.


These situation handicapping problems are only a problem if you perceive them to be a problem, and with that perception your brain is steered toward a loss. He was big on the Phycology aspect as Bill V. noted recently in his Sartin birthday post.


Here is another of my recent over 90 day winners and I have posted a bunch of them, also a horse with a very bad line in last two that won.



2018-10-07 10:27:10 Bet Belmont 1Win $5.00 #5 $5.00 $42.50 2018-10-07 10:05:37 Bet Keeneland 1Exacta $1.00 6 / 1 + 4 $2.00 2018-,10-07 10:05:01 Bet Keeneland 1Win $5.00 BX 1 + 4 $10.00 $44.50

Mitch44