Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

ray lopez · 02-19-2019, 02:02 PM

I have been retired for 3 years now and i bet to have fun and supplement my retirement income.For the last year and a half i've kept it simple.I just bet on mid-claiming sprints and mid-claiming turf routes.These races run true to form most of the time and looking at my record keeping these are the races i have made a profit.

My simple procedure:I use Val4 because all the lines are equalized,normalized and adjusted.Sometimes,i use Spec160.

Sprints:

I look at the race and if i see the morning lines of 8/5,2/1,5/2 and if the pp's say these horses really look good,i pass because the public will agree.I look at races where the m/l odds are 5/2,4/1,6/1,7/1...these is where i'll probably find a horse that i like and the most of the crowd will not like.This procedure is the same i use for turf routes too.If there's a confusion on recency or form,like say two contenders have not race in 3 months,i pass.I try to narrow it down to four contenders using total energy.I bet the horse that Energy2 predicts will win.

Turf Routes:
I look for a horse best turf line up to six months...Narrow the contenders to 4.I bet the horse with the best projected power fraction or best closing velocity.

I put these contenders to Jim Bradshaw's Aodds98 Super Gold and export the race to Energy2.

Flat betting $20 to win/horse:
Last year,on sprints ...i bet on 588 races and won on 153 of them for a 26 win %.My ave.mutuel was $9.20. Total amount bet on 588 races= $11,760
Total amount won on 153 bets =$14,076 for a profit of $2316 ...ROI = .19

Turf Routes...I bet on 214 races for a total amount = $4280 ...I won on 61 of the races ,total amount collected=$6954 .Win %=28. ...Profits of 42634 ...ROI = .61

Bankroll:

If you have $2000 ,with a betting unit of $2 and you lose 13 in a row...it will not bother you.But if you only have $100 and lose 13 in a row,will you have the guts to pull the trigger on the next bet?...
When i started this,i took out a portion of my 401k retirement fund.So there's no pressure for me.I also have a comfort zone of $20-$40 tops,and anything over that i don't feel relax.

Remember Mike Pizzola's advice; "Let the bet make you"...It's that feeling that you have total confidence on your bet.If the betting wondow is 5 miles away,will you take that trip to bet? After doing it for awhile,you'll get that feeling.If not,there's another race.And if i lose,so what...next...

Exercise and diet:
I keep myself physically fit by fast walking and hitting the heavy bag a few times a week.You have to keep in shape.I also try to eat good most of the time.I have a pizza now and then with my grand kids.

There's more to life than horse racing.I take a break every few weeks.I don't neglect my wife and family.

Ray

02-19-2019, 02:02 PM	#1
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,138	How The Old Man Bets I have been retired for 3 years now and i bet to have fun and supplement my retirement income.For the last year and a half i've kept it simple.I just bet on mid-claiming sprints and mid-claiming turf routes.These races run true to form most of the time and looking at my record keeping these are the races i have made a profit. My simple procedure:I use Val4 because all the lines are equalized,normalized and adjusted.Sometimes,i use Spec160. Sprints: I look at the race and if i see the morning lines of 8/5,2/1,5/2 and if the pp's say these horses really look good,i pass because the public will agree.I look at races where the m/l odds are 5/2,4/1,6/1,7/1...these is where i'll probably find a horse that i like and the most of the crowd will not like.This procedure is the same i use for turf routes too.If there's a confusion on recency or form,like say two contenders have not race in 3 months,i pass.I try to narrow it down to four contenders using total energy.I bet the horse that Energy2 predicts will win. Turf Routes: I look for a horse best turf line up to six months...Narrow the contenders to 4.I bet the horse with the best projected power fraction or best closing velocity. I put these contenders to Jim Bradshaw's Aodds98 Super Gold and export the race to Energy2. Flat betting $20 to win/horse: Last year,on sprints ...i bet on 588 races and won on 153 of them for a 26 win %.My ave.mutuel was $9.20. Total amount bet on 588 races= $11,760 Total amount won on 153 bets =$14,076 for a profit of $2316 ...ROI = .19 Turf Routes...I bet on 214 races for a total amount = $4280 ...I won on 61 of the races ,total amount collected=$6954 .Win %=28. ...Profits of 42634 ...ROI = .61 Bankroll: If you have $2000 ,with a betting unit of $2 and you lose 13 in a row...it will not bother you.But if you only have $100 and lose 13 in a row,will you have the guts to pull the trigger on the next bet?... When i started this,i took out a portion of my 401k retirement fund.So there's no pressure for me.I also have a comfort zone of $20-$40 tops,and anything over that i don't feel relax. Remember Mike Pizzola's advice; "Let the bet make you"...It's that feeling that you have total confidence on your bet.If the betting wondow is 5 miles away,will you take that trip to bet? After doing it for awhile,you'll get that feeling.If not,there's another race.And if i lose,so what...next... Exercise and diet: I keep myself physically fit by fast walking and hitting the heavy bag a few times a week.You have to keep in shape.I also try to eat good most of the time.I have a pizza now and then with my grand kids. There's more to life than horse racing.I take a break every few weeks.I don't neglect my wife and family. Ray