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By no means am I suggesting to NEVER bet favorites. That would be ignoring the math since they are winning close to 40% of races these days. But we are involved in a task that involves decision making under uncertainty. We need to deal in probabilities. In order to bet a favorite to win, it has to be going off even money or better, AND there has to be at least one horse whose tote odds are 3-1 or LOWER that I would deem highly unlikely to win. But here is the problem with current day betting pools: most favorites are obvious, and the rebate syndicates will pound that horse. As you know, when the odds on 1 horse gets pounded in a pari-mutuel pool, the odds on other horse(s) will go up. So many of these favorites will be underlays in the win pool because their odds have been cut so much that it is highly unlikely any other horse that "can't" win will be trading at 3-1 or lower.
Regarding favorites that are singles in horizontal bets, remember this rule of thumb: whatever you spend on the horizontal bet with a single is mathematically equivalent to betting that amount on the single to win. If this size bet is within your bankroll parameters, fine. But if you are a $20 win bettor and you just spent $200 on a pick 4 with a single, you are probably over-betting your bankroll.
Richard
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