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If you haven't done a complete race by hand using just a calculator you can't appreciate all the math involved of doing just Phase 3. And with that many calculations involved its very often is subject to mistakes.With expanded memory and competition that drove the price down on computers the Methodology quickly advances to greater win proficiency.
From that Probability Convergence was born, using Chaos Mathematics. Chaos Mathematics is nothing more than combining two factors to create a new factor. I.e. taking the 2nd FR and 3rd FR and making HE (hidden energy) or compounded factors.
We talked about the 3 FPS FR.'s that were used to create the Dream Race and match up the contenders. What Sartin did was to take the 7 Primary Factors etc. and made the dream race from that. The highest for each factor would get 100 and the rest were weighted according to how far they were from the best or 100 horse for that category. They went through several changes before finding out that weighting them performed best. Sartin doesn't give us the formula for the weighting but it wouldn't be hard to figure out. His stuff was being stolen so much that most of this stuff was hidden from view. Entropy was a forerunner to this and Validator.
What they did next was a huge step. To all of the above they added Total Energy and it evolved into V/DC. Adding Total Energy proportionally to the factor being measured.
pg. 31 talks about using the F6 function. All this did was to measure a line in the horses PP's to select the proper pace line. Again this was an advanced concept that morphed into what we now know as the Preceptor.
Sartin stress's not to use a line where it was beaten more than 7.75 or 7 3/4 lengths and to focus on the last 3 comparable, go back 4 lines if it has a line that wasn't at a comparable distance.Comparable distance is within 1 furlong of todays distance.
Part 2 of Convergence:
pg. 7 Sartin "I worked for two decades to get the proper weighting,"
pg. 10 " Let the public go on suffering from the innate fallibility of using visual perceptions and "lengths." We're a computerized Method. The computerized ESP(L) is far superior to attempting to determine ESP(L)with the naked eye."
I have stressed the importance of the computer ESP ( %MED) over the visual in several of my previous posts.
Pg 10 "Assigning ESP to runners from a purely visual perspective proved dangerous even to the most insightful of both our users and teachers."
"the now extinct Phase III. Its only value today is getting low priced favorites."
Mitch44
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