Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 09-13-2019, 05:57 PM

Previous studies prove that the lower the odds on the favorite the more likely it'll win.Or in other words a favorite that will pay $3.20 to win its percentage is greater than a horse that will only pay $ 3.60. 3- 5 verses 4-5. In this case for a percentage of 62.5 % verses 55.6%. The percentages are greater depending on the odds such as 3-5 verses 9-5 $5.60 or 35.7 % or 2-1 favorite $6.00 for 33.3%.

The example above(3-5 & 4-5) puts you at a break even proposition at best for a perfect series or run. I myself would rather risk the same amount of money on a DD or Ex . combo using that low odds horse as a key. The potential for gain is much greater for the same risk. People are much better picking winners than picking place horses, and its not unusual to get a very good overlay on this bet or the DD. Key here also meaning that I believe it to be a legitimate favorite and it is placed at its correct distance and surface, as like anything else not all favorites are created equal.

Mitch44

09-13-2019, 05:57 PM	#2
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	Previous studies prove that the lower the odds on the favorite the more likely it'll win.Or in other words a favorite that will pay $3.20 to win its percentage is greater than a horse that will only pay $ 3.60. 3- 5 verses 4-5. In this case for a percentage of 62.5 % verses 55.6%. The percentages are greater depending on the odds such as 3-5 verses 9-5 $5.60 or 35.7 % or 2-1 favorite $6.00 for 33.3%. The example above(3-5 & 4-5) puts you at a break even proposition at best for a perfect series or run. I myself would rather risk the same amount of money on a DD or Ex . combo using that low odds horse as a key. The potential for gain is much greater for the same risk. People are much better picking winners than picking place horses, and its not unusual to get a very good overlay on this bet or the DD. Key here also meaning that I believe it to be a legitimate favorite and it is placed at its correct distance and surface, as like anything else not all favorites are created equal. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 09-13-2019 at 06:04 PM.