Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 11-22-2019, 10:15 AM

It's true that an excellent selecting process will not make up for a poor money management techniques and those that don't give money management its just dues will soon depart from their bankroll. I know very few that give money management the respect it deserves.

Depending on the situation and I can make a profit I'm not adverse to betting more than 2 horses a race. In difficult races that are part of a series (DD,P3 etc.) it pays to go deeper in races that are fraught with unknown factors or has many contenders. It pays to evaluate the race as much as a horse or two to access the degree of difficulty of each race. One race may only have 2 legit contenders and another may have 3 or 4.
I always try to design a bet based on my handicapping or analysis. There are many valid questions such as :Who is the only horse that can beat this horse? Can I make a better profit by betting an Ex. and not a win bet on this low odds horse? And of course; Should I just pass this race? I've made some killer bets on legit favorites by looking at the race before and after for a nice DD. Players tend to ignore ugly horses and play too conservative in wide open races. I ask; Why not? and include unknown factors in my analysis, plus many just can't pull the trigger on good price horses. I don't have that problem, if you can't make the bet than you can't reap the rewards.

While Sartin's early thesis or studies of betting the "counter energy and class horses" for Ex. betting is still a valid concept there is no doubt in my mind he would have evolved from this if he was still with us. Basically through his research etc. Well he gave the foundation for research, all one has to do is take it to the next step. A ha, there is that nasty word again, WORK. What is getting or producing many place horses?

The Kelly system does work just like Richard says, so can betting on 3 horses to win(of course depending on the odds) The Kelly has stood the test of time and its designed to prevent ruin or run outs as simple as that. Some have problems understanding it but as Sartin always said; "grasp concept." The concept is a simple one but most have problems properly employing it, much of that is being caught up in the moment and the excitement of a race or the chase. I find it very difficult to employ it especially because I often play multiple tracks, actually impossible to employ with multiple tracks. Its much easier to employ when playing a single track but even then some have problems with it. What I have recommended to a few through PM's is to forget this after every race unless your really a math wizard and employ it after each day of racing rather than after each race. Problem solved. I like to think of it as the modified Mitch or Monkey version of Kelly.Of course you'll win more if you can employ it after each race however few can do that and the time can be better spent on the selection process. Know you're capabilities and limitations and don't try to juggle more balls than your capable of. Problem solved as you win your bets increase after winning days and decrease after losing days. This allow you to place more emphasis on each race rather than what amount to bet which really is a distraction and a bad one at that. I find this modified version of the "Kelly" to be superior to no Kelly. Like anything in horse racing its subjective and I'm sure there are nay-sayers. To each their own, find out what works for you and the nay-sayers should find out what works for them. No plan or no money management for sure doesn't work. Good luck.

Mitch44

11-22-2019, 10:15 AM	#2
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	It's true that an excellent selecting process will not make up for a poor money management techniques and those that don't give money management its just dues will soon depart from their bankroll. I know very few that give money management the respect it deserves. Depending on the situation and I can make a profit I'm not adverse to betting more than 2 horses a race. In difficult races that are part of a series (DD,P3 etc.) it pays to go deeper in races that are fraught with unknown factors or has many contenders. It pays to evaluate the race as much as a horse or two to access the degree of difficulty of each race. One race may only have 2 legit contenders and another may have 3 or 4. I always try to design a bet based on my handicapping or analysis. There are many valid questions such as :Who is the only horse that can beat this horse? Can I make a better profit by betting an Ex. and not a win bet on this low odds horse? And of course; Should I just pass this race? I've made some killer bets on legit favorites by looking at the race before and after for a nice DD. Players tend to ignore ugly horses and play too conservative in wide open races. I ask; Why not? and include unknown factors in my analysis, plus many just can't pull the trigger on good price horses. I don't have that problem, if you can't make the bet than you can't reap the rewards. While Sartin's early thesis or studies of betting the "counter energy and class horses" for Ex. betting is still a valid concept there is no doubt in my mind he would have evolved from this if he was still with us. Basically through his research etc. Well he gave the foundation for research, all one has to do is take it to the next step. A ha, there is that nasty word again, WORK. What is getting or producing many place horses? The Kelly system does work just like Richard says, so can betting on 3 horses to win(of course depending on the odds) The Kelly has stood the test of time and its designed to prevent ruin or run outs as simple as that. Some have problems understanding it but as Sartin always said; "grasp concept." The concept is a simple one but most have problems properly employing it, much of that is being caught up in the moment and the excitement of a race or the chase. I find it very difficult to employ it especially because I often play multiple tracks, actually impossible to employ with multiple tracks. Its much easier to employ when playing a single track but even then some have problems with it. What I have recommended to a few through PM's is to forget this after every race unless your really a math wizard and employ it after each day of racing rather than after each race. Problem solved. I like to think of it as the modified Mitch or Monkey version of Kelly.Of course you'll win more if you can employ it after each race however few can do that and the time can be better spent on the selection process. Know you're capabilities and limitations and don't try to juggle more balls than your capable of. Problem solved as you win your bets increase after winning days and decrease after losing days. This allow you to place more emphasis on each race rather than what amount to bet which really is a distraction and a bad one at that. I find this modified version of the "Kelly" to be superior to no Kelly. Like anything in horse racing its subjective and I'm sure there are nay-sayers. To each their own, find out what works for you and the nay-sayers should find out what works for them. No plan or no money management for sure doesn't work. Good luck. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 11-22-2019 at 10:23 AM.