Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP
we can even see the difference here between the 1c at the 6 and 6.5f distances at CD
this is an in form consistent running horse ( checking the speed ratings on the 3 races.
Yet look at the big difference at 1c
good thread Ramon!
Rich
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Observations: This horse is improving as closing fractions between lines 1 and 3 indicate. But for me there is a potential disconnect. In line 2 the first fraction is 5 tix faster, the 2nd fraction is 4 tix faster, but the closing fraction of 24.4 would not normally be the expected fraction after running so fast, so early. If you lose 2 units of energy for every 1 unit of greater exertion, wouldn't you expect the line 2 closing fraction to be some where in the order of about 26.2, using the line 3 fractions as a baseline?
Old Sartin raw closing time of 24.4 was "86" for line 2, "91" for line 1 and "88" for line 3, if memory serves me correctly.
So what can we learn from this? Perhaps you could ask The Hat for his interpretation. Jim stated a few posts back that he was a little leery of using CD first fraction times at 6f, but in the same post he allowed that the final time was okay to use. Obviously the horse can run fast, but the final time has to have some functional relationship to the first call time. Do we just conclude that with a normal 50-60 ft run up vs. 150 ft +/- that the first call would be 2-4 tix slower?
The horse did what the horse did (at least final time-wise), but if he ran a 21.3 in a normal run up instead of 22.2 or 22.3, he couldn't/shouldn't run a final time in the 109's, so shouldn't we discount the final time of this horse at 6f for Match Up purposes? or simply note the anomaly and use the 6.5f races?
THanks,