Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 06-16-2020, 03:01 PM

The F3 PoR and TS PoR factors (Fraction3 and True Speed aka Final Time velocity for the race, respectively) are not good indicators for models if only because some pacelines for today's horses will be drawn from Tandem races (i.e. the same race) and thus will have identical PoR values and thus TIED ranks. Thus, results in more hits in the Top 4 (and why 100% for TS PoR).

However, TSF3+ is comprised of TS and F3 for the pace of the race (PoR) of the line chosen PLUS the Total Energy for the horse. It is not a single factor rating, but a blending of the final speed (True Speed) of the race the horse ran against weighted by the 3rd fraction of that race weighted by the Total Energy of the horse. If you hover your mouse over the header on the Rx+ screen, it tells you the components, as does this Documentation entry here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...02&postcount=5)

For the foregoing reasons, according to your paceline selection practice, I would consider it a good factor for you to track. The Match Up = how the horse set or overcame the pace of the race. Thus, TSPoR is an indicator of the calibre of pace of the race, while the F3 weighting shows performance of the pace settor in the critical 3rd fraction, while a good showing in Total Energy shows that the horse itself (compared to the pace it faced) faced or overcame well that pace of race.

Further, there are NO ties in TSF3+ because the Total Energy for the horse component guarantees uniqueness even if horses raced in the same Tandem race. This blended factor is there because the modeled results of over 1300 races showed hit rates not quite as good as your small sample shows, but in the mid to upper 80% range across race classes, tracks and distances (possibly surfaces, can't remember).

This factor is a (much) simpler rendition omitting most of the internal segments of what VDC essentially shows (which uses all of the internal segments, plus segmental gains against pace, plus overall Primary Factors).

You may find it interesting to research what the intersection ranks show using Top 5/4 ProfitLine, Top 5/4 Bris Prime Power, Top 5/4 TSF3+ and Top 5/4 Rx3. For extra (and in my experience - impactful) measure, compare the Top 3 Tx2 (Place to Win Ratio) from the toteboard readings.

This always leads to a very high percentage of Winners and not a few Place finishers, Top 4.

Again, your choice of pacelines matters, as does how you decide to filter Non/Contenders.

Ted

06-16-2020, 03:01 PM	#12
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	The F3 PoR and TS PoR factors (Fraction3 and True Speed aka Final Time velocity for the race, respectively) are not good indicators for models if only because some pacelines for today's horses will be drawn from Tandem races (i.e. the same race) and thus will have identical PoR values and thus TIED ranks. Thus, results in more hits in the Top 4 (and why 100% for TS PoR). However, TSF3+ is comprised of TS and F3 for the pace of the race (PoR) of the line chosen PLUS the Total Energy for the horse. It is not a single factor rating, but a blending of the final speed (True Speed) of the race the horse ran against weighted by the 3rd fraction of that race weighted by the Total Energy of the horse. If you hover your mouse over the header on the Rx+ screen, it tells you the components, as does this Documentation entry here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...02&postcount=5) For the foregoing reasons, according to your paceline selection practice, I would consider it a good factor for you to track. The Match Up = how the horse set or overcame the pace of the race. Thus, TSPoR is an indicator of the calibre of pace of the race, while the F3 weighting shows performance of the pace settor in the critical 3rd fraction, while a good showing in Total Energy shows that the horse itself (compared to the pace it faced) faced or overcame well that pace of race. Further, there are NO ties in TSF3+ because the Total Energy for the horse component guarantees uniqueness even if horses raced in the same Tandem race. This blended factor is there because the modeled results of over 1300 races showed hit rates not quite as good as your small sample shows, but in the mid to upper 80% range across race classes, tracks and distances (possibly surfaces, can't remember). This factor is a (much) simpler rendition omitting most of the internal segments of what VDC essentially shows (which uses all of the internal segments, plus segmental gains against pace, plus overall Primary Factors). You may find it interesting to research what the intersection ranks show using Top 5/4 ProfitLine, Top 5/4 Bris Prime Power, Top 5/4 TSF3+ and Top 5/4 Rx3. For extra (and in my experience - impactful) measure, compare the Top 3 Tx2 (Place to Win Ratio) from the toteboard readings. This always leads to a very high percentage of Winners and not a few Place finishers, Top 4. Again, your choice of pacelines matters, as does how you decide to filter Non/Contenders. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 06-22-2020 at 03:28 PM. Reason: correct original error referring to TS PoH, now refers correctly to Total Energy of the Horse (TE PoH)