Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - "The Hat"

Turbulator · 10-25-2006, 01:50 AM

Initially, I thought this was a hard race, and I think it is harder than the last race, but after some thought I approached it this way:
It is "kind of" a paceless race. In which case out go the sustained type runners, and sustained pressers.

(It's helpful for me to know how many horses are in each race, but unfortunately that information is hidden. I use this to help with determining where a horse is sitting at the first two calls in relation to the number of entries. Sixth by 2 at the first call in a six horse race is different than sixth by two in a twelve horse race.)

There aren't really any dominant wire to wire runners in this field.

When projecting the pace I always look for a horse(s) who actually had the lead. So I project the pace from the first two calls of the 8 horse. 23.6 47.4 (I convert everything to tenths out of habit.) I then look for a horse who has won (or run the best) against the projected pace of the first two calls. The one horse won his last race in 23.4 47.4 143.6 Almost a perfect fit. So the projected pace is 23.6 47.4 143.6

I now look for other horses who can also run to this projected pace.
No others fit except the 7. There is a tandem with the 4 and the 7, but the 4 lost by 12 3/4 lengths, so I eliminate him. That "tandem" races transposes to a 23.4 46.6 142.4 (I added 4 tenths to the final time for deceleration.) Adjusted for beaten lengths it would read 23.4 46.7 142.8

The one horse is a sharp animal, but he isn't quite as fast as the 7. His second call time is a little slower as well.
The one is also too far back at the first call. Not lengths wise, but position wise.

In fact, most of these horses (except the 7) are too far back at the first call. Since it is a paceless race the 7 can run a little slower and possibly wire the field. He may or may not head the 8. I suspect he'll closely press and pass him at the second call. He is the only horse that shows a propensity to run up close, fight, and try to take the lead. He could very well have the lead alone at the second call, and if he does I think he'll win.

Even though I think the 1 is a good fit, I'm going with the 7 for all of the aforementioned reasons.

However, I am not as confident in my decision as I was in the last practice race.

Steve

10-25-2006, 01:50 AM	#9
Turbulator Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 467	Initially, I thought this was a hard race, and I think it is harder than the last race, but after some thought I approached it this way: It is "kind of" a paceless race. In which case out go the sustained type runners, and sustained pressers. (It's helpful for me to know how many horses are in each race, but unfortunately that information is hidden. I use this to help with determining where a horse is sitting at the first two calls in relation to the number of entries. Sixth by 2 at the first call in a six horse race is different than sixth by two in a twelve horse race.) There aren't really any dominant wire to wire runners in this field. When projecting the pace I always look for a horse(s) who actually had the lead. So I project the pace from the first two calls of the 8 horse. 23.6 47.4 (I convert everything to tenths out of habit.) I then look for a horse who has won (or run the best) against the projected pace of the first two calls. The one horse won his last race in 23.4 47.4 143.6 Almost a perfect fit. So the projected pace is 23.6 47.4 143.6 I now look for other horses who can also run to this projected pace. No others fit except the 7. There is a tandem with the 4 and the 7, but the 4 lost by 12 3/4 lengths, so I eliminate him. That "tandem" races transposes to a 23.4 46.6 142.4 (I added 4 tenths to the final time for deceleration.) Adjusted for beaten lengths it would read 23.4 46.7 142.8 The one horse is a sharp animal, but he isn't quite as fast as the 7. His second call time is a little slower as well. The one is also too far back at the first call. Not lengths wise, but position wise. In fact, most of these horses (except the 7) are too far back at the first call. Since it is a paceless race the 7 can run a little slower and possibly wire the field. He may or may not head the 8. I suspect he'll closely press and pass him at the second call. He is the only horse that shows a propensity to run up close, fight, and try to take the lead. He could very well have the lead alone at the second call, and if he does I think he'll win. Even though I think the 1 is a good fit, I'm going with the 7 for all of the aforementioned reasons. However, I am not as confident in my decision as I was in the last practice race. Steve