Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 12-27-2020, 01:47 PM

I don't use any mathematical formula to determine a bet and don't have the time to do so. I just know from habitual situations I guess what a fair value and what's not a fair value. A horse can pay $4.00 and be the best bet of the day(as far as a winner) after all that's a 100% profit.

I have always said that the public or fans lump all favorites and longshots together. THEY ARE NOT ALL CREATED EQUEL!!! One is a deserving favorite or longshot while another is not. THEY ARE NOT ALL CREATED EQUEL. Each player must determine that on their own. And by no means is that an easy assignment. Determining whether they are legit is an extremely difficult task, but not impossible in some situations. Few dig deeper than their usual routine to find out.

Some situations just can't be decided because of the form cycle, even the most proficient don't know when a horse will go off form or dramatically improve, at least until horses start talking. I believe it was the famous Ray Taulbot that said for every race you win you'll lose two due to the form cycle. I'm not sure of the actual accuracy of that statement but there is no doubt and a fact that we lose races because of the form cycle. Not many exam it(form cycle) but there are clues that give us some edges in certain situations, not all situations but we need to take advantage of the ones we can detect.

Keep lumping all those favorites and longshots in the same category or the number one BLBL,V/DC or top in any Factor as the same, and your just going to get the same results as many others of the obvious.

Mitch44

12-27-2020, 01:47 PM	#4
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	I don't use any mathematical formula to determine a bet and don't have the time to do so. I just know from habitual situations I guess what a fair value and what's not a fair value. A horse can pay $4.00 and be the best bet of the day(as far as a winner) after all that's a 100% profit. I have always said that the public or fans lump all favorites and longshots together. THEY ARE NOT ALL CREATED EQUEL!!! One is a deserving favorite or longshot while another is not. THEY ARE NOT ALL CREATED EQUEL. Each player must determine that on their own. And by no means is that an easy assignment. Determining whether they are legit is an extremely difficult task, but not impossible in some situations. Few dig deeper than their usual routine to find out. Some situations just can't be decided because of the form cycle, even the most proficient don't know when a horse will go off form or dramatically improve, at least until horses start talking. I believe it was the famous Ray Taulbot that said for every race you win you'll lose two due to the form cycle. I'm not sure of the actual accuracy of that statement but there is no doubt and a fact that we lose races because of the form cycle. Not many exam it(form cycle) but there are clues that give us some edges in certain situations, not all situations but we need to take advantage of the ones we can detect. Keep lumping all those favorites and longshots in the same category or the number one BLBL,V/DC or top in any Factor as the same, and your just going to get the same results as many others of the obvious. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 12-27-2020 at 01:50 PM.