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Fairchild:
Do not get sucked into the concept "I can't profit betting to win, so let me make it more complex and bet verticals and horizontals". Consider the following:
Horizontal bets, such as DDs and p3s are simply win bet parlays. The payoff is roughly equivalent to betting (and winning) a race, then putting all the profit plus your original bet on the next race. Sometimes the win parlay pays more, sometimes the DD or p3 pays more. BUT, YOU STILL HAVE TO FIND THE WINNERS AND YOUR PAYOFF NEEDS TO EXCEED YOUR RISK. If you are not profitable betting to win, you most likely won't be profitable betting DDs and p3s.
P4s, P5s, and P6s are even tougher: here, the track decides which races you must parlay, and some of these races may not be ones that you would ordinarily consider betting alone.
Vertical bets, such as exactas, are also a form of parlay. Here, you must pick the winner, and then ALSO pick the horse finish second. If you cannot profitably pick and bet the winner, how do you expect to win betting exactas?
Trifectas and superfectas are even tougher, since there is a high degree of randomness in selecting the right horse to finish third and fourth. Again, if you don't have the winner, none of the other analysis matters.
What you have discovered is that with a 20% plus takeout, gambling on horse racing is a tough game. I would suggest trying to toss horses with 20% of the pool or larger (i.e., whose odds are roughly 3-1 or lower) that you think have little or no chance to win today. If you are tossing the favorite, make sure it's odds are 3-2 or lower to give yourself some added cushion. You will end up passing a lot of races trying to toss low odds horses. Focus on races where you find such horses, and I think you will be pleasantly surprised at your bottom line if your handicapping is any good. Stay away from horizontal and vertical exotics until you can show a profit betting to win.
Good luck.
Richard
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