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Parakeet;
There is a distinct difference between the visual and % MED ESP. The % MED is much more accurate. Horses that get the lead tend to loaf on the lead unless challenged by another horse or by the closers. They(especially) the really good one's only due what is necessary to win that race or particular Match UP.
Also this time of the year their trying to rate or slow these horses down in order to stretch them out to get the Derby distance. Some of then refuse and burn themselves out as the distances increase. Others are more trackable and will settle and make their runs in the stretch.
Early horses with high % Med of 70% seldom win unless up against other's who also run that way. They burn themselves out and run into a brick wall as their gutted( sharp deceleration). These types are also more efficient at shorter distances such as 5F or 5.5 F.
Many horses can't win against certain Pace of the Race(POR) scenarios, energy used up early is unavailable late. The best horses are those that can overcome the POR. The better the horse the higher its Total Energy and it has reserve energy to overcome the POR to include a fast POR.
Understanding % Med helps to eliminate horses too fast and also too late(one run closers) in certain matchups. % Med can also be used to determine if a horse can stretch out or if their too fast to do that.
Certain tracks favor a particular % Med such as Early or even Sustained. Its not unusual for a track to favor E in sprints and Sustained in routes. Smart trainers and owners are well aware of this, but not by % Med which is more accurate. They will ship horses to tracks that favor their horses style. I.e. if an E horse they'll send it to MTH or SA. If too early to win at those track(70%) they'll send to a track that cards a lot of 5 F or 5.5 F races, the shorter distances allows them to carry their speed more to the wire. That last FR at Major tracks of 2F in sprints is just too much with their high deceleration and high % Med to get up. Note: some connection's never figure this out and keep running a horse at a distance and surface where it can't win. We have tools such as % Med where we know their horse better than they do and can detect if its properly placed, which helps to eliminate contenders.
As these races for 3 yr. old's increase to 9F it starts to separate horses that are just too early to get the distance and win.
Bottom line is most don't understand % Med and ignore it, today's players are into instant gratification. Put them in the computer and let it rip.
In RDSS sorting your contenders by ESP(% MED ) NOT the VISUAL ESP can help decipher a race and determine the best E type(E,Ep & P) or best S Type. This brings much more clarity to Factors, your analysis and final decision making..
Ted said he would put a button in the new program to sort ESP by running styles, not sure if that has been done yet.
Mitch44
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