Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44
With Speed Ratings such as Beyer, Bris, Track Master etc. This is all done already for you. It's doubtful at best you could improve on their numbers. Sure that could be done and I can think of a few things that would make them more accurate, but have they already thought of that and its included?
I don't think you realize the difficulty of collecting all the data required. A full time job in itself. It would be like data base collector's who spend all their time collecting and little time for playing. Even after gathering all this data tracks can change with a new surface such as they had to do because of breakdowns recently at SA.
The thing about SR's is that its similar to Pace Handicapping, understanding concept is the most important thing about it. And your smart enough to do that without all the drudgery to get to the finish line.
Another problem with Pars is their often outdated by the time you get the information.
Once you understood concept the first thing is you would have to do, is write a computer program to gather all the data on a daily basis. For all the tracks in the Us otherwise how does one handle shippers? A good and well written program to extract all that data automatically would save much valuable time collecting all this data, plus provide some immediacy.
Not only that SR aren't the end all as other factors can be or are more effective. Their a better tool than players had previously or nothing at all, even today.
There are many reasons why a horses' SR underperform or even outperform. Hell even the initial concept is wrong because the collection of data does not consider the variant on the date collected to determine these Pars. They consider it later after a race is run to determine a good figure but not in the collecting of the data to determine the Pars. They average final time by class, age, surface and distance to get the Pars but not the variants on that data. Averages are inaccurate as a means to determine accuracy, a true false sense of hope.
Bottom line is a SR is an improvement to nothing. Unless your going to spend years building a better mouse trap after first becoming a computer programmer for-get about it.
Beyer's original concepts were just foreplay and he's never to my knowledge ever improved on the concept. An update or new and improved version could be a better product but an expensive investment in time and money.
Mitch44
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So pretty much just don't try is what you're saying?
I know it would take work but I would rather struggle and work my way up to creating my own speed figures vs telling someone there is a lot of work to be done
I guess if I can't handle it then Dave S's book is the way to go then