I think the technical term for this kind of race is '
crap-shoot'. But, also where prices can be had from time to time. Choose your chaos tolerance.
My rule is: demote from Win in a turf race anyone who has not previously run (well) in a Turf race. I win more than I lose by applying this guidance. Thus - there's only 1 horse: the #4 (the rule magically knows about DQs
).
The default 'Best of Last 3' Paceline Strategy works as well as any, IMO. FWIW, take a look at the Supplementary Factors on the Rx screen, including the PoR Supplementals. Which of the underneath horses rates best? (the #7 Place horse).
The other
part of the crap-shoot is: who knows how these horses will stretch out (another 3 furlongs).
Your Exacta part-wheel seems the perfect bet that the favourites will not finish 1-2, given the action on those 2 and the FTS. $6 bet returns $32, or 5-1 (probably better if you dutch it for an equal payoff). Is 5-1 enough payoff with so many unknowns?
I'd rather get more, and would pass.
Ted