[rdiam]

Let's take a look at r7 at Indiana Grand for Tuesday 8/17, post time 5:31 pm EDT, 8f on the turf for NW1 with optional claiming. At first glance it appears to be a wide open race with a vulnerable ML favorite:

First, pacelines and observations:

1 -- SCRATCHED

2 -- L3 (June 22): switches from dirt to turf, from spring to route, jockey switch to Mojica who has been hot, likely part of fast early pace, positive form cycle

3 -- look at L1 (july 29) and L2 (june 29): positive jockey switch, but probably too slow

4 -- L1 (june 22): switches dirt to turf, first time on turf, first race after 56 day layoff, poor turf pedigree, BUT has top trainer AND jockey in field

5 -- L4 (june 14): switches dirt to turf, spring to route, positive jockey switch to Batista, probably part of fast early pace, BUT has weak Fr3

6 -- L1 (july 28): jockey switch, slow Fr1, BUT is a closer who may benefit from fast early pace

7 -- SCRATCHED

8 -- look at L! (aug 3) and L2 (june 29): jockey switch, appears to be declining in form, slow Fr1, but is a closer who may benefit from fast early pace

9 -- look at L1 (july 29) and L2 (june 29): third race after claimed, jockey switch, last race was a speed rating top, BUT will be part of fast early pace, has never passed a horse in the stretch

10 -- L1 (july 28): part of fast early pace, jockey switch, third race after layoff BUT in poor current form, has never passed a horse in the stretch, NEEDS THE LEAD but probably won't get it

11 -- look at L1 (july 24) and L2 (june 27): third race after claim, positive jockey switch to Pedroza, slow Fr1, BUT is closer who may benefit from fast early pace

12 -- look at L1 (july 28) and L2 (july 7): blinkers on, part of fast early pace today

13 -- SCRATCHED

14 -- SCRATCHED

MATCHUP: 10 NEEDS THE LEAD, but probably won't get it as battles 2 and 5 for early position, but all three lack quality Fr3. 8, 11, 12 all close

MAIN WIN CONTENDERS: 2,4,6,9,11, LONGSHOT CONTENDER 5

BETTING STRATEGY: win bets 2,9, ex 6/9,11, ex 11/2,4,5,6,9, ex 4/2,5,8,11, small win bet on 5

Good luck

Richard