Point well taken Mitch. I'm doing more of the same as I review the band of +'s and-'s in my contenders. I agree, there are times when you are stuck with a line, so I try to mentally adjust, giving nudges occasionally. I will be responding to LT1's latest with an idea that I have been kicking around, but have not formulated all that I want to say yet. As always, thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44
Once you get below -15 or above +15 your out of what is a normal variant normal. Once I select all of my lines I then review the variants and create a new norm by seeing what the average is for my chosen lines. Then I see what is abnormal by that standard, if a horse is abnormal I try to seek another line.
Sometimes you can use another line and sometimes your just stuck with it, especially with young horses with limited data. Even if stuck with it, the line provides important information as to its preference to distance or surface. Like a FTS if its horrible I just
disregard it and consider it an UNK. Factor.
No matter what one uses there are flaws within in it. Even the best factors have flaws. Only being able to adjust one race for CSR is a flaw, false favorites effect CR+ and just using the last 3 lines are all examples of flaws. There are work arounds to most problems or flaws however most are on autopilot mode. Autopilot mode will have you crashing and burning on landings and takeoffs. Just not good for all situations or all races.
If there is a whole card of being a math wizard it lies in working smartly and figuring out solutions to problems. We encounter the same problems daily in handicapping such as stretch outs. Greater success comes from solving problems other can't handle.
Mitch44
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