Quote:
Originally Posted by raceman5
Here is the $60,000 question Bill, after you get your top 5 how do u narrow it down to your top 2? After all, in today's racing, the av field is around 7-8 horses in a race on the dirt, unless it is a turf race.
Bob
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In previous posts in this thread we have covered rankings of the four main factors. So any horse without a top 5 ranking in ALL four factors is suspect - in this study 84+% of all winners had top 5 ranks in all four factors across all distances and surfaces (but see LT1's post further on about PL and BPP.) You would be surprised how few races where there are five horses with all of the four main factors!
What follows is pretty much basic Sartin Methodology.
Next you can look on the TPR graph to see who the top 3 EPR, LPR and TPR horses are and if they are within 5 points of the best. Exceptions to the within 5 points might be extreme early and late horses, but the early horses need to be their and 2C.
Look at the total energy TE ranking and the actual TE value of the remaining contenders. If there are more than about 2.75 points (my estimate, could be different with others) difference between a horse under consideration and the best, consider dropping this horse as a win contender.
In this regard you can always consult the POR TE on the RX3 screen (rt side of Rx3 info) and compare the POR from the paceline to the TE rank within today's contenders. If the horse is coming out of a race whose POR was #5 and today the horse is #4 or #5 in your mix of contenders, probably downgrade it.
If you suspect any of this is "suspect" go back and have RDSS auto choose lines and go to the Analysis Rx screen and see who won. Based on the information in this study I went back over the weekend's races at Saratoga and kept for final consideration, the top 3 PL, the top 3 BPP and the top 3 TPR. Then I did what I suggest above and made some eliminations. You would be surprised at how many of the races had W/P/S horses in the top 4 or 5 picks.
The more races you see, the better you will get at eliminations. Go back and record what you did, how it turned out, and you will find areas where downgrading a pick should be required.
Buenos knot holes going forward,