Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 08-22-2021, 03:25 PM

This is another tough race to tread carefully in because a case can be made for several contenders and there are a couple unknown factors thrown in.

Final contenders:
# 1 given a freshening and needing last may run back to to top of 88 or maybe about a 90. Older horse and if won would not be surprised. Competitive and a threat on best.

# 2 Unknown Factor, only one turf route and won, B on improvement, 3 yr. old. Trainer has figured out all the key ingredients, equ., dis., and surface. Could be anything. Upside and a ML of 10-1 , very nice risk reward.

# 6 fits conditions, completive here, proven quality, older horse.

#10 fits conditions, completive here, proven quality, older horse.

# 12 Unknown factor, up and coming 3 yr. old stepping up to logical spot. Improved on turf, route and won last. Only 2 starts, trainer has figured out all the key ingredients, equ., dis., and surface. Could be anything. Upside and a ML of 15-1 , very nice risk reward.

Final order & 5 listed only for Tri. players, is:

10-6-12-2-1 In this order I've taken proven quantity over those that must prove it, a percentage move. I put the 12 over the 2 because of better Tot. Energy and S R is better.

However the 2 may have only won by what it had to in last. Has speed and showed a new dimension in last by rating and coming off the pace, change of running style.

Well I have my final order but haven't decided on a plan of attack as of yet.(bet plan) except for a small Tri. of $. 50 which I can only do after seeing the odds.

Good luck,

Mitch44

08-22-2021, 03:25 PM	#11
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	This is another tough race to tread carefully in because a case can be made for several contenders and there are a couple unknown factors thrown in. Final contenders: # 1 given a freshening and needing last may run back to to top of 88 or maybe about a 90. Older horse and if won would not be surprised. Competitive and a threat on best. # 2 Unknown Factor, only one turf route and won, B on improvement, 3 yr. old. Trainer has figured out all the key ingredients, equ., dis., and surface. Could be anything. Upside and a ML of 10-1 , very nice risk reward. # 6 fits conditions, completive here, proven quality, older horse. #10 fits conditions, completive here, proven quality, older horse. # 12 Unknown factor, up and coming 3 yr. old stepping up to logical spot. Improved on turf, route and won last. Only 2 starts, trainer has figured out all the key ingredients, equ., dis., and surface. Could be anything. Upside and a ML of 15-1 , very nice risk reward. Final order & 5 listed only for Tri. players, is: 10-6-12-2-1 In this order I've taken proven quantity over those that must prove it, a percentage move. I put the 12 over the 2 because of better Tot. Energy and S R is better. However the 2 may have only won by what it had to in last. Has speed and showed a new dimension in last by rating and coming off the pace, change of running style. Well I have my final order but haven't decided on a plan of attack as of yet.(bet plan) except for a small Tri. of $. 50 which I can only do after seeing the odds. Good luck, Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 08-22-2021 at 03:34 PM.