Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

1retired · 09-23-2021, 02:50 PM

I'd like to make some comments about Ranchwest's post on the 6th Race at CHD on 9/18/21, a 7F for 25,000mClmg FM.

There are only 2 positive comments about the 3rd place finisher, Itsy Bitsy Betsy. First, She had the highest/fastest running style in the race E8, so she would be expected to take the early lead. Second, she had the highest E/L difference in the race, 24.3. The next highest was the eventual winner, Shania with an E/L difference of 12.8. The two next hgihest were 8.6 and then 7.8 and then down to 4.3. Usually, in these kind of races where there iss an E/L difference dominant horse, that horse also has the highest EPR rating. Itsy Bitsy Betty was 5th with an EPR of 87. The top EPR horse in the race had a 90.
She was not in the top 5 in terms of CSR or VDC or BL/.BL. She had the lowest TPR in the race by 25 and the lowest Total Energy by 6.6. This horse led until the stretch and finished third to the eventual winner by 1/2 length. i

If this race is typical, my takeaway from this is that these big E/L difference horses will carry their speed further than you would ordinarily expect asnd will finish in the money if not win the race in question outright.

The eventual winner, Shania, has the same argument as Itsy Bitsy Betsy to a lesser degree. Also, it was only 0.5 shy of having the highest EPR in the race and it's TPR was mhhch much better. than Itsy's. She would be expected to run near the front end of the race. Her Total Energy was only 2 points less than the top rated horse.

Finally, the eventual 2nd place horse, Peyton's College, was the second best CSR horse and the 3rd best VDC and BL/BL horse. Using the traditional approach for the 2nd place horse and the E/L difference appraoch for the 1st and 3rd place horses, the exacta and trifecta were gettable. The exacta paid
$228,20 and the trifecta paid $973.70.

Shania, at odds of 13-1 paid $28.00 to win. Peyton's College, at odds of 9,3-1 paid $7.6o to place and Itsy Bitsy Betsy, at odds of 9.6-1 paid $6.80 to show.

I would appreciate any comments, suggestions or well meant criticisms.

1 retired -

j

09-23-2021, 02:50 PM	#18
1retired Grade 3 Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 66	Pace Makes the Race - TPR I'd like to make some comments about Ranchwest's post on the 6th Race at CHD on 9/18/21, a 7F for 25,000mClmg FM. There are only 2 positive comments about the 3rd place finisher, Itsy Bitsy Betsy. First, She had the highest/fastest running style in the race E8, so she would be expected to take the early lead. Second, she had the highest E/L difference in the race, 24.3. The next highest was the eventual winner, Shania with an E/L difference of 12.8. The two next hgihest were 8.6 and then 7.8 and then down to 4.3. Usually, in these kind of races where there iss an E/L difference dominant horse, that horse also has the highest EPR rating. Itsy Bitsy Betty was 5th with an EPR of 87. The top EPR horse in the race had a 90. She was not in the top 5 in terms of CSR or VDC or BL/.BL. She had the lowest TPR in the race by 25 and the lowest Total Energy by 6.6. This horse led until the stretch and finished third to the eventual winner by 1/2 length. i If this race is typical, my takeaway from this is that these big E/L difference horses will carry their speed further than you would ordinarily expect asnd will finish in the money if not win the race in question outright. The eventual winner, Shania, has the same argument as Itsy Bitsy Betsy to a lesser degree. Also, it was only 0.5 shy of having the highest EPR in the race and it's TPR was mhhch much better. than Itsy's. She would be expected to run near the front end of the race. Her Total Energy was only 2 points less than the top rated horse. Finally, the eventual 2nd place horse, Peyton's College, was the second best CSR horse and the 3rd best VDC and BL/BL horse. Using the traditional approach for the 2nd place horse and the E/L difference appraoch for the 1st and 3rd place horses, the exacta and trifecta were gettable. The exacta paid $228,20 and the trifecta paid $973.70. Shania, at odds of 13-1 paid $28.00 to win. Peyton's College, at odds of 9,3-1 paid $7.6o to place and Itsy Bitsy Betsy, at odds of 9.6-1 paid $6.80 to show. I would appreciate any comments, suggestions or well meant criticisms. 1 retired - j