Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 09-23-2021, 05:05 PM

ranchwest;

I looked at the 6 horse that you gave as an example. If you used L3 which you had to for that scenario than your correct and IMO you lucked out. I would have used L2 for that horse myself which totally changes its amount of deceleration , 3rd FR and red stick.
The 6 improved much in its last two races , also was #1 on Prime and was claimed by a better trainer who is 25% 2nd off the claim and 25 % 2nd start with the trainer. Also appears to have changed its running style in last race.

All this stuff is pace line dependent. The worse horse in the field sometimes wins, that's an exception not the norm. Horses can and do outrun their numbers due to many reasons and many are predicable while others aren't.

A steady diet of these high + horses will cost more than you'll win. It is not the key to the mint. If that was your sole reason for betting it than good luck with that in the future as their money burners.

Not all high deceleration horses are NTL types, generally those over 70% Med are. They can have high deceleration and be low on or high on Tot. Energy. Horses decelerate at different rates, the better ones decelerate gradually and the worse quickly.

Wishing you great success in the future ranch.

Mitch44

09-23-2021, 05:05 PM	#15
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	ranchwest; I looked at the 6 horse that you gave as an example. If you used L3 which you had to for that scenario than your correct and IMO you lucked out. I would have used L2 for that horse myself which totally changes its amount of deceleration , 3rd FR and red stick. The 6 improved much in its last two races , also was #1 on Prime and was claimed by a better trainer who is 25% 2nd off the claim and 25 % 2nd start with the trainer. Also appears to have changed its running style in last race. All this stuff is pace line dependent. The worse horse in the field sometimes wins, that's an exception not the norm. Horses can and do outrun their numbers due to many reasons and many are predicable while others aren't. A steady diet of these high + horses will cost more than you'll win. It is not the key to the mint. If that was your sole reason for betting it than good luck with that in the future as their money burners. Not all high deceleration horses are NTL types, generally those over 70% Med are. They can have high deceleration and be low on or high on Tot. Energy. Horses decelerate at different rates, the better ones decelerate gradually and the worse quickly. Wishing you great success in the future ranch. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 09-23-2021 at 05:13 PM.