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From previous posts, I have started a spot play angle based on two posts from Lueylump in 2009 regarding the Early/Late Difference Graph. Luey postulated in his posts that a horse with an Early/Late Difference that was significantly greater than the E/L difference of all of the other horses in the race, had a significant advantage over those horses. It could (1) immediately go to the lead, relax and maintain that lead to the wire. or almost maintain it and still finish in the moneyl. (2) tThe second option it could take was to run along with the "herd" and then make an explosive burst on the far turn or in the stretch to win the race. I ask that you carefully read every word of both Luey's posts "Importance of the E/L Difference Graph" and "As Easy as 1,2,3".

No specific E?/L difference number was identified by Luey. I have provisionally established my limit as AT LEAST 10. Every time I have identified a horse meeting this criteria I have placed it in the databsse. So far, I have; not identified any horse meeting this criteria that has not at least finished Show (once) or Place (once). All of the other 6 horses identified have won at big prices and were part of exactas and trifectas on the order of 100s and 1000sx of dollars. The winning odds on these 8 horses goes from 7.3 toi - to 50.6-1.
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Other factors that I am monitoring but have not established limits for, so far, are EPR Diff, TOtal Pace Rating, Total Energy, Running Stylpe, and ESP.(

Three sprint races have been identified and 5 route races. So far, no turf races have been identified but I am sure that they are there and willb be found.

The lowesgt level of race was a 5000 cliaming race at TP. The highest level races identified were a Grade 2 Handicap at HOL and Mine That Bird's Ky Derby and Plalrace Malice's Belmont Stakes. So, this method is widely applicable up and down the class ladder but not at the minimal levels that you will see at MNR, CT, TDN and FL and other lower level tracks. However, I think that you will find winners at those tracks as well.

What makes this angle so great is that a winning horse will often have less and often significantly less numbers in factors such as TPR and Total Energy and, as well, often not have top 5 numbers in VDC, CSR, BPP, PL and BL/BL. Those factors and numbers get approx, 90% of all winners. This angle identifies longshot horses that figure, ACCORDING TO THIOS ANGLE from the 10% remaining horses. These winners also get some tremendous exactas and trifectas and, by extension, will also help get large DDs, and Pick 3,4,5, 6s.

The Excel spreadsheet with the data for the 8 horses identified so far ais attached just below this sentence, I hope. It may be at the end of the document. Im' not very good at attachments.

As soon as I learn how, I will be attaching the relevant workup portion of these 8 races to my next email.

For those interested in seeing the posts and the data right now, here are the relevant posts and post #'s

A Couple of old threads on TPR - Post #9 on/about 9/18/21 by ?
TP Race 3 and Lasix - Post #2 on/about 1/27/13 by FTL
Bill V Goes the Extra Mile. - POst #1 on/about 1/14/13 by FTL
Importance of the Earluy/Late
Difference Graph - Post # 4 on/about 5/12/09 by Lueylump
As East as 1,2,3 - Post #1 on/about 5/9/09 by Lueylump
Anybody Else Ever Get
"Numbers Blind" - Post #1 on/abut 4/1/09 by Kahunab
As Easy as 1,2,3 - Post #4 on/about 5/9/09 by Lueylump
Dissecting the Ky Derby
Paceline - Post #2 on/about 6/8/13 by Lone Speed

Right now this data is unbelievably good, in fact, too good. There are no losers. That is not reality. There are losers when using this angle and I/ we need to find them so that we can determine how profitable this angle is in reality, if at all. I think it will be but I need more data to determine that. I will be handicapping more races and monitoring this website but I don't have RDSS so I won't be really able to uncover new winners in races myself. I have a very lold Apple computer on its last legs. Apple computers are not conducive to RDSS and it costs some money to adapt them. I don't have a lot of money right now. I will have at Christmas when I can buy a new compulter and an RDSS subscription. From then on I'll be handicapping my own races using RDSS. pI ask that you help me out in this regard a nd notify me when you find new races fitting this category of longshot, whether it wins, places in the money or not. I'll report back to you with all of the new data that I get.

Spome of you may feel tthat you are or will be doing all the work and I'll be getting some benefit from you work but not contributingg. So, be it. I'm using all the tools that I have at this time to do what I can in this regard. I'm doing the initial work here and will contribute as much as I can until Christmas with what I have. The uncovering of new winning angles and facets of the handicapping game and presenting them to the other members on this website is what I imagine is the purpose of this website.

Thanks in advance
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