Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

ranchwest · 09-29-2021, 12:34 PM

Mitch,

Good post. From what I am seeing, pace is something you have to learn to trust. It is important to grasp, as you have pointed out, that horses win in proportion to their odds, though nowadays skewed toward favorites. A few days ago, I had a 40/1 as one of my 4 contenders and it won. But I don't expect that to happen more than 1 in 40 times, if that much. That's all of the opportunity that is there. So, when pace tells us over and over that a favorite is likely to win, the favorite IS GOING TO WIN nearly 40% of the time these days. It just is. If we want the 40/1 horse, we have to wait for it. A restaurant owner I once knew would tell impatient customers... if you want fast, go across the street to McDonald's. If you want a good hamburger, you're going to wait for it! If you want to lose at horse racing, take the "fast food" route.

As for tier and rank, rank has equally spaced positions. Tier could have multiple horses at one level. I think of running style, EPS, as tiers. Whereas, we usually look at Prime Power as a rank. That's my take anyway.

09-29-2021, 12:34 PM	#9
ranchwest Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,489	Mitch, Good post. From what I am seeing, pace is something you have to learn to trust. It is important to grasp, as you have pointed out, that horses win in proportion to their odds, though nowadays skewed toward favorites. A few days ago, I had a 40/1 as one of my 4 contenders and it won. But I don't expect that to happen more than 1 in 40 times, if that much. That's all of the opportunity that is there. So, when pace tells us over and over that a favorite is likely to win, the favorite IS GOING TO WIN nearly 40% of the time these days. It just is. If we want the 40/1 horse, we have to wait for it. A restaurant owner I once knew would tell impatient customers... if you want fast, go across the street to McDonald's. If you want a good hamburger, you're going to wait for it! If you want to lose at horse racing, take the "fast food" route. As for tier and rank, rank has equally spaced positions. Tier could have multiple horses at one level. I think of running style, EPS, as tiers. Whereas, we usually look at Prime Power as a rank. That's my take anyway.