Quote:
Originally Posted by forecast
Hi Jeff,
Doc stated that, in a sprint, a horse needs to make up twice as much energy in the third fraction as he is behind in the first fraction. In routes it is almost three times as much. In Houndog's example race, Gold was the pacesetter. Conji had a first fraction deficit of .76, Kell had a first fraction deficit of .89, and Rog3 had a first fraction deficit of 1.53. None of these horses had a third fraction advantage over Gold of even 1-to-1 (F1 deficit to F3 advantage). If Gold runs his race, and pacelines/contenders are correct, Gold should win easily. The trick to this "precision" analysis is in the match-up, where true contenders and "correct" pacelines are selected.
I truly hope this helps. If I can help in any way, please let me know.
Forecast
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I believe that the statement above as quoted by Forecast is probably
one of the best and explanitory pieces of information that I've seen on the board regarding the Match-Up.
It brings to light and explains the concept and has been extremely helpful to me.
Thank you, I've learned something new and it is appreciated.
Have a very happy, healthy and prosperous holiday season and new year.