|
Richie:
I'm not a form cycle guy but have the following observations:
Whenever horse seemed to try harder to engage the lead, lines 3 and 9, he couldn't close. Against the fastest pace he raced against, he held off 9+ lengths and made run. Virtually all races when not near lead produce "+" type races. Suggest you look at F2 in Speculator and see if track variant on "106" was out of the normal range and then confirm by checking the F3 Perceptor ratings to see if the big effort was demonstrably too much of an improvement. I'll accept a best effort in last race but only if it is not a quantum leap. Another check would be F4 screen and see where the horses %med's are centered. I don't like to use races that get too far away from where a horse was successful.
Another point. apparently the trainer was fooled as well. the PP's show races at predominantly 30+ day intervals and the subject race was run back in 17 days and that was after nearly a 2 month rest (he missed a race). Best results have been when races spaced at 4-6 weeks. All things considered what are usually "+" marks might have been reason, FOR THIS HORSE, to be "?" marks.
Funny game, aint it?
Bill
|