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Well, Jeff you are using the first principle in handicapping, "Why this horse is in this race today". Two possibilities; is he in for conditioning or take a share of the purse?
Who enter the horse in the race? The trainer; he is the only one that knows how the horse will perform today. We look at the horse's pp, and we conclude, based on how we translate the infos, he will be a contender or not. Some people use fractional times, pace calls, speed ratings, workouts, class rises or drops, form, and some combinations of the above.
What people tend to forget that all the above infos are relate in some ways to each other.
Just because the horse run last 2 race in fast time, or was positioned well during the race pace, or has been dropped in class today, or has show good speed rating last out etc.... doesn't mean that he will win today.
If you can get the pps for last night 2nd. race at Penn, you see what I mean. The race was a gimme, the winner paid $17, the place paid $7, the fav came 3th.
Why Qpublic send the horses at those odds? Because they couldn't accurately translate the infos in the horses pps.
The horse's pp are a puzzle, we must put the pieces together in order to have a complete picture on how the horse will perform today, qouted from my handicapping mentor.
Your methods to pick contenders is not wrong, you might need some other variables to make it works. Use what make you confortable, be confident in your selection, and never second guess yourself.
Regards,
lbj
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