Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

dugoutgold · 01-10-2007, 11:57 PM

Hey Jeff, heres my 2 cents worth, as you know Im using aoddsgold98 these days only. Im getting more and more match up oriented here as Im study closely Jims new book. I have to watch myself though I get so involved in looking for running lines that I often over look critical factors mentioned in the posts above. Now I redo everyrace I lost and make a note of why I lost it and in most cases its simply that I overlooked something. First I look at the usable tandems screen to see what the tandem pace was and how the horses in it stood up to it. Then its to the pp screen to see if thier are any E types whos recent form is good and then see what splits they can run if unaposed. I look for eithor the Key horse as Jim calls it or the horse who owns the first fraction. I look again at the tandem splits if they are applicale to todays race and can compare to the E types. Usally I can guess the probable pace of todays race fairly well now. Then I take a look at the compostite screen to see how the race make shape up early or other than early. Then back to pp screen to try to pick lines that match as close as i can each horse to todays pace. ( i still look closey and try to guess the horses current conditon and all) Then all I use is simply 3 screens, first is the final screen which simply shows the compound ratings, line scores etc. Then (and this important no matter what program you are using) is to look at the velocity numbers to see how those compound ratings were derived. I find many top rated horses that wont cut it in todays race simply because thier verlocity numbers dont stack up to the compound ratings. Finally, I look at the plot graph screen and ask my self can an early win who owns the first fraction or will a presser (who might look strong in the second fraction) overtake him, if so will the early run so hard as to wear down the presser type in the final fraction and and SP type take over? It takes me a hell of lot of close scrutny here but my records show improvement.

01-10-2007, 11:57 PM	#8
dugoutgold Grade 1 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 206	Hey Jeff, heres my 2 cents worth, as you know Im using aoddsgold98 these days only. Im getting more and more match up oriented here as Im study closely Jims new book. I have to watch myself though I get so involved in looking for running lines that I often over look critical factors mentioned in the posts above. Now I redo everyrace I lost and make a note of why I lost it and in most cases its simply that I overlooked something. First I look at the usable tandems screen to see what the tandem pace was and how the horses in it stood up to it. Then its to the pp screen to see if thier are any E types whos recent form is good and then see what splits they can run if unaposed. I look for eithor the Key horse as Jim calls it or the horse who owns the first fraction. I look again at the tandem splits if they are applicale to todays race and can compare to the E types. Usally I can guess the probable pace of todays race fairly well now. Then I take a look at the compostite screen to see how the race make shape up early or other than early. Then back to pp screen to try to pick lines that match as close as i can each horse to todays pace. ( i still look closey and try to guess the horses current conditon and all) Then all I use is simply 3 screens, first is the final screen which simply shows the compound ratings, line scores etc. Then (and this important no matter what program you are using) is to look at the velocity numbers to see how those compound ratings were derived. I find many top rated horses that wont cut it in todays race simply because thier verlocity numbers dont stack up to the compound ratings. Finally, I look at the plot graph screen and ask my self can an early win who owns the first fraction or will a presser (who might look strong in the second fraction) overtake him, if so will the early run so hard as to wear down the presser type in the final fraction and and SP type take over? It takes me a hell of lot of close scrutny here but my records show improvement.