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First off lets not get confused between whether a horse with only 3 numbers can tier ahead of a horse with 4 numbers and whether or not it can beat a horse with 4 numbers. The generic answer is yes to both. Jon your own screen shot shows the 1 tiered ahead of 2 horses with 4 numbers. It can and does happen daily. Now the question becomes can it win the race. According to my latest survey[the link above] a horse with 3 numbers won 9 of 100[9%]. Richie had well over a 1000 races to base his decisions on. I would suggest that each of you do your own surveys to see what % of races are won by horses with all 4 #s based on your capping. Depending on the work of another can be useful[as a guideline] but you need to have your own records to depend on in order to wager with confidence. And don't forget other capping factors such as dist and surface,class etc must be also taken into consideration.
Tim
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Trust but verify
Last edited by Lt1; 05-23-2022 at 07:54 PM.
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